"Moscow does not want Karabakh conflict to be solved under domination by United States"

Interview with editor-in-chief of the “Problems of National Strategy” magazine issued by Russia-based Strategic Studies Institute, political analyst Ajdar Kurtov.


In your opinion, did Russia and Armenia have strong reasons to extend the stay of the Russian military base in Gumri for 49 years while the term of the first agreement had not yet expired?

There can be a lot of versions as to why the parties decided to sign a new deal while 10 years still remained till expiration of the first agreement. This is the sovereign right of both sides, nothing extraordinary happened. Many experts link the signing of an agreement with Armenia with similar actions towards the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine. The parties decided to extend the agreement without waiting for the end of the term there, too. However, the logic was clear in case of Ukraine.

The case with Armenia is not like to that of Ukraine. I think stability in relationships with partners, including the CIS, is of great importance for Russia. Moreover, the stability is determined also by a time factor. The longer a partnership is, the more reliable it will be.

Does all this have anything to do with the Karabakh conflict? Such a link does exist, and it is difficult to deny it. We should pay attention not to the fact that Yerevan and Moscow decided to extend the agreement for 49 years, but the changes that were made to the protocols of the agreement. Earlier, the protocols has a clause under which Russia would provide military support to Armenia in event it faces an attack from outside. The term "outside" referred to countries that were not part of the Soviet Union. But now the protocols envisage providing military assistance in event Armenia is subject to attack from any country of the world, including from CIS countries. Armenians interpret this agreement, saying that Russia would help them if they conflict with Azerbaijan.

So, Russia will side with Armenia once war over Nagorno-Karabakh resumes?

From a legal viewpoint, Russia is entitled to do it. Armenia can pretend that the act of attacks in any area is also committed in its territory. But real politics often does not behave exactly as it is fixed in international treaties. I want to emphasize one thing. Before the parties signed the protocols, was not Russia obliged to protect Armenia from foreign aggression? It was obliged to do so within the CSTO. That is, the presence or absence of protocols does not practically change the overall situation. However, in any case, despite any agreement, the parties cannot help each other blindly based on their interests. History knows many examples when, despite agreement on military assistance with each other, countries denied assistance to allies because of their own interests.

Before Russia decides to enter into a possible conflict over Karabakh, Moscow will carefully count the cost. Moreover, we have all witnessed what Dmitry Medvedev said in Baku. These words do not allow to suggest that in the event of a war, Russia will take the side of Yerevan. Besides, one should understand that the Russian base in Gyumri has 3,5 thousand troops which cannot have a decisive impact in the case of conflict.

How do you assess Russian president’s recent visit to Baku given his prior visit to Yerevan?

Firstly, the visit shows that the allegations that Russia sympathizes only with Armenia are groundless. I often meet with Armenian and Azerbaijani politicians. Representatives of both countries constantly argue on the sidelines that the Moscow holds the key to peace in the Karabakh conflict. They both believe that Moscow can resolve the conflict, forcing the opposite side to this. But Moscow does not have that authority which it had as the capital of the USSR.

Is Moscow indeed interested in resolving the conflict?

I'm not sure there are grounds to argue that Moscow is interested in preserving the frozen state of the conflict. Russia is rather interested in a nice way out of this conflict. It does not simply know how to do this. However, Russia does not want the conflict to be solved without its participation through the domination of, say, the United States. It does not also want to be drawn into an open conflict, when it would be de facto put before the need to make a choice in favor of one or another country.


/Day.Az/