Azerbaijani analyst: Armenia will inevitably face collapse in case of clash between Iran, West

Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John R. Bolton, speaking at the American Enterprise Institute, said that the U.S. will not take any steps to solve the frozen conflicts in post-Soviet area. How do you comment on this statement?

To begin with, Former U.S. envoy to the United Nations John R. Bolton is one of the "hawks" who always took a very radical stance on issues related to strategic interests of the United States. They are always in an offensive posture. If such people begin to show some restraint, it says a lot ...

In the meantime, there is an objective reality which shows that the U.S. is involved in many hot regions worldwide, and it is not ready for new ones. Besides, Russia has some sort of psychological edge on the U.S. as it is going  to fill existing voids in the former Soviet Union.

Russia in some ways follows the U.S. example reinforcing its military presence and so-called point-like diplomacy. I cannot say how it is promising. But since these conflicts, as well as all other similar crises are very difficult to solve, overseas politicians do not mind to give Russia the right to a certain political moves.

What are your predictions on the U.S.-initiated Armenia-Turkey reconciliation?

It is evident that today Armenia faces very deplorable situation both in terms of economy and international credibility. Considering this, the United States hoped to persuade Armenia to normalize relations with Turkey. But the United States fails to consider one thing - Armenia is a root of evil not only for the South Caucasus, but also the vast region. This country requires a hard tone in communicating with it. Otherwise, any initiative associated with it is doomed to failure.

The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian-Turkish conflict appeared due to presence of this country in the South Caucasus. Plus, now we all are witnessing increasing probability of the Armenian-Georgian conflict in Javakheti. Such a policy, if it is appropriate to refer to it as policy, has led to the country to a terrible state.

This de facto country is transforming into a large military base and has no prospects for economic cooperation with countries in the region. Besides military and technical capacity, it has no other major resource to share with neighbors. Of course, the U.S. attempted to breathe life into Armenia through normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations. But the world has witnessed the specifics of the country’s foreign policy “No to all offers” on numerous occasions.

Then how could the U.S. lack foresight when initiating the Armenian-Turkish normalization?

I think it would not sound quite right or at least would be an exaggeration to say that the U.S. policy has foresight. Practice has shown that the U.S. has clearly overestimated its capabilities in the case of Armenia. It cannot achieve an easy solution. It is possible that they will reconcile Armenians and Turks and the victory could even be pyrrhic. And then, what comes after this victor? I think this question is not idle.

You mentioned that Armenia should to be blamed for the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh and the Armenian-Turkish conflict. And how do you assess level of the Armenian-Iranian cooperation?

I am convinced that full potential and opportunities of the Armenian-Iranian economic cooperation have long been exhausted. Iran, the United States and Armenia understand it very well. The existing level of Armenian-Iranian cooperation allows Armenia to survive, nothing more. But this could end if Iran and the West clash. If this happens,  Armenia will not be able to avoid collapse.

It was precisely for these reasons that the U.S. put forward the idea of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. These attempts have one result for the moment - Armenia tries to legalize its refusal to process of normalization of relations with Turkey ...

Armenia has proved to be a very unreliable partner many times. It maintains friendly ties with Iran compulsively because it does not other option at least. This means that the Armenian-Iranian relations have no future while the Azerbaijani-Iranian, Azerbaijan-Turkish, Azerbaijan-Russia, Azerbaijani-Georgian and Azerbaijan-US relationship as well Azerbaijan’s relationship with Israel have real prospects ...

Incidentally, during Armenian PM  Tigran Sargsyan's visit to Israel he was to be accompanied by  a member of the Israeli government from the second day of his visit which was later cancelled due to "sudden temperature." I think Israel makes it clear to Armenia in many ways that its salvation lies in the agreement to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict under Azerbaijan’s terms. This is a logical outcome of the unsuccessful diplomacy which Armenia has pursued over the past years.

A. Hasanov