"The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: still just about frozen"

The British magazine The Economist has published an article "The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: still just about frozen".

The article says: Could Azerbaijan and Armenia be on the verge of renewed war over Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenian-populated enclave inside Azerbaijan conquered and occupied by Armenia in 1994? On the face of it, no. On Saturday the presidents of the two countries met to discuss the issue in the southern Russian resort town of Sochi, with Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, acting as honest broker.

They made some pleasant noises. Both parties committed to resolve their differences peacefully, and to implement fully an agreement on the exchange of prisoners of war made in October. They also agreed to investigate ceasefire violations, under the aegis of the OSCE.

The chances of pre-meditated war, the ICG argues, are slim. Both sides appear to believe that grandstanding is a useful negotiating tactic. The danger is that it increases the chances of front-line skirmishes provoking an accidental war.

Matt Bryza, the American ambassador to Azerbaijan, recently said that resolving the conflict "is more important than any other issue in the region". Last Thursday a Russian government spokesman said his country would be putting in "all its efforts". But the fact that negotiations are still to progress beyond basic confidence-building measures shows how far there is to go.


/AzerTAc/