How many days may the new Karabakh war last?

In your opinion, why did Russia renew the lease of its military base in Gyumri for 49 years exactly now?

First, it is important for Russia to implement some complex security measures in South Caucasus and, in particular, in the Black Sea-Caspian region. Renewal of the lease of the Russian base in Armenia, in the first place, should be considered in the overall context of security in the South Caucasus. Deployment of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Crimea and extension of its lease should also be seen in the context of overall security system.

Secondly, Russia decided not to delay extension of lease of the Gyumri base, as the situation in the Caucasus, as we know, can drastically change within a few months or even days.

Russia decided to extend the lease exactly at this time as its key task is to ensure its interests in the long term. Once the lease is extended for 49 years, Russia can safely strengthen the southern borders.

In your view, will Russian troops join the war on the Armenian side in event hostilities resume in Nagorno-Karabakh?

According to the fifth protocol signed by Armenia and Russia, Russia provides security of its southern ally. If Azerbaijan starts war, it will unlikely target Armenia. First and foremost, Baku will liberate its occupied territories, which are an integral part of Azerbaijan. Consequently, such actions are not covered by terms of the protocols, and, under this treaty, Russia is not obliged to enter the war on the Armenian side.

If Azerbaijan deals a military strike on the territory of Armenia itself, intervention of all CSTO allies is possible. However, it is not known how members of the military alliance will vote on this issue. But whatever happens, Russia will likely serve as a mediator rather than as a participant in any case.
 
I want to emphasize that today the international community, global powers and regional leaders, I think, will not allow a possible war in the Caucasus to last more than one week.

Is it worth to expect some progress in the negotiation process following Dmitri Medvedev’s recent visit to Armenia?
 
It is not worth to expect some progress after any bilateral meetings between Russian and Armenian presidents. Progress can take place if only both sides sit at the negotiating table. I do not think that the Russian president may bring some kind of settlement plan to Yerevan without informing Baku about it. If such a plan exists, Baku should know this. Once again, Russia sees this region stable and secure. So, Russia needs to find a mutually acceptable solution to this problem.

And what one can expect from the Russian president’s upcoming visit to Baku?
 
I think it is, first and foremost, the visit will see signing of major economic agreements in the energy sector, education, as well as documents in the field of military cooperation. Surely, there will be a joint high-level statement on resolution of the Karabakh conflict. I can even suggest that during the press conference, Russian President will state that the protocol signed in Yerevan does not pose any threat to Azerbaijan, but constitutes a basis of security in the region and, as co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia backs peaceful settlement of the conflict.  Thus, Medvedev's visit to Baku can only intensify the negotiations, because intensification of the negotiation process is a priority in wake of the Almaty meeting in mid-July, in which the conflicting parties failed even to issue a joint statement.


/Day.Az/