Azerbaijani analyst on possible meeting between Turkish PM and Armenian President in U.S.

Can we say that Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Washington will remove issue of the “Armenian genocide” from the agenda of the U.S. once and for all?

To begin with, the issue of "genocide" will not be removed from the agenda of the United States neither today nor in the coming years. It will continue hanging over Turkey as the sword of Damocles. It's a good tool for putting pressure on Ankara. Problems in US-Turkish relations will long be ambigious, because Turkey is also a regional power and seeks to conduct its policy.

In addition, we must understand that the voters in the U.S. have a significant role. There can not be policy, when the president can, roughly speaking, shut the mouths of parliamentarians. It does not work in the United States. And the role of ethnic diasporas in the U.S. has been playing and will continue to play an important role.

Another thing, is that this year the U.S. president is not going to do what Armenians expect him to do – he will not make a statement recognizing the “genocide” on April 24th.

At the same time, the scheduled visit of the Turkish Prime Minister is related to a new situation in our region rather than "genocide" issue. Tehran's nuclear program is the number one issue for the U.S. The U.S. needs a stable situation in the South Caucasus and the possibility of using this territory for its future plans in the region, particularly in connection with Iran. Of course, Turkey's position also plays a great role both in relation to Iran and in relation with Caucasus countries.

In your opinion, will Turkish PM and Armenian President meet in the U.S.?

I am sure of it. Anyway, I'll be very surprised if this meeting does not take place. Americans themselves want this meeting to happen. I have no doubt that during his meeting with Erdogan, Obama will surely discuss all issues related to Armenian-Turkish relations. After all, the question today is very important for both the U.S. administration and Turkey. Each side hopes to solve its problems. Americans need further progress in Armenian-Turkish relations, which stalled after the protocols were signed in Switzerland. There were even fears about the future prospects of Armenian-Turkish relations. So, this issue will be discussed both in the course of US-Turkish negotiations and during meeting between Erdogan and Sargsyan in the U.S.

In your opinion, will the Turkey-Armenia border finally open? Will it be linked to the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is a matter of time. Most likely, it will open soon. Simply, each side is trying to squeeze dividends in its favor and lose as little as possible. But it is very doubtful whether this issue will be legally linked with the process of settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.  Of course, during his meetings with Obama, and then with Sargsyan the Turkish prime minister will try to link these two issues together. He knows that Turkish society and Baku also want this. The best way out for Erdogan and his supporters is to link these two processes. But he is unlikely to succeed. Anyway, today it is difficult to imagine.

Is it possible that Armenian terrorism will again be used as a mechanism of pressure on Turkey, and Armenian terrorists will organize attacks in the country?

I think it has already been left in the past. First, let's not forget that notorious Armenian terrorist organization ASALA was supported by the USSR, and was part of the great geopolitical struggle of the Soviet Union against NATO and U.S. in that period. There is a different situation in the region.

May the process of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict mark progress any time soon?

No. As always, we'll hear optimistic statements by the OSCE Minsk Group and other Western diplomats and experts. There will be statements by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. But realistically, I expect no breakthrough in this regard in near future.. The positions of the conflicting parties are too far apart, and today I see no positive dynamics towards the settlement of the conflict.

How do you assess the socio-political situation in Armenia? Does former President Kocharian have a chance to return to politics?

Today the situation in Armenia is quite difficult. But when compared with Serzh Sargsyan’s early days in power, today his position is much stronger than it was a year ago. And we can say that today he feels as president much more confident than a year ago.

However, socio-political situation in Armenia is heavily dependent on three factors: the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, relations with Turkey and the economic situation in the country. And since there is uncertainty and serious problems in all three cases, it means that socio-political situation in Armenia will be permanently subject to changes and shocks.

Since the power in Armenia is not democratic and would not be inclined to seek dialogue with the opposition and solve problems based on democratic principles, I do not rule out changes in Serzh Sargsyan’s position. Therefore, we can only talk about the current situation of Sargsyan.


/Day.Az/