Baku strengthens its role in shaping Europe's energy architecture

In two weeks, Azerbaijani oil will officially enter the Czech Republic's state reserves. This was stated by Deputy National Security Adviser of the Czech Republic Tomas Pojar, speaking at the Baku Energy Forum.

Today, the Czech Republic is the second in the list of countries importing Azerbaijani oil. Italy continues to hold the championship, and since the beginning of this year, the Czech Republic has surpassed Israel, which previously occupied the second position. The Czech Minister noted that oil, gas, coal and nuclear energy will serve the countries for many years, and it is also necessary to develop renewable energy. Energy security for the Czech Republic is a matter of national security, Tomasz Pojar emphasized.

Since the beginning of 2025, the Czech Republic has begun to increase purchases of Azerbaijani oil and petroleum products. In January-April, a third more oil was purchased than in the same period last year. According to the Azerbaijani State Customs Committee, $305 million worth of fuel has been sold to the Czech Republic so far.

In total, $4.6 billion worth of Azerbaijani oil was exported to 17 countries in four months. In addition to Italy and the Czech Republic, the list of importers of Caspian oil includes Romania, Germany, Croatia, Portugal, Great Britain, Greece, Thailand, Indonesia, Tunisia and others. Although exports of petroleum products showed a decrease, crude oil shipments to Europe increased.

The demand for oil in Europe remains stable. It is not falling, despite the trends associated with decarbonization. According to forecasts by OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghaith, by 2050, oil demand will exceed 120 million barrels per day, which, he believes, is a significant indicator.

In an exclusive interview with Trend on the sidelines of the Baku Energy Week, al-Gaisa said that in 2025, oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 million barrels per day compared to last year. Production growth is expected in the United States, China, and other countries. All details will be reflected in the updated forecast of the World Oil Outlook, which will be presented in July.

According to the OPEC Secretary General, pragmatism is one of the key aspects. According to him, in the last 1-2 years, more and more people have been approaching the issues of the future of energy with a greater degree of realism and common sense. And this is very important, because with the growth of the world's population, more energy will be needed. "We see that this year there has been some retreat in a number of policies aimed at switching to alternative energy sources and renewable energy sources. We are not against renewable energy - on the contrary, we support its development. However, we are confident that it is impossible to ensure the economic growth and energy needs of the planet in the future using renewable sources alone. The world needs to be more realistic and more pragmatic," al-Gais said, adding that OPEC is not at all against renewable energy.

New geopolitical shifts have forced the world to slightly adjust its energy plans, which were actively promoted two or three years ago. The topic of fossil fuels has returned to the agenda, but not as an object of defamation, but once again took its place as a means of economic development and energy security. This does not mean that the green agenda has been stopped. It continues to move forward, but with more thoughtful steps, without unnecessary fuss and without naming those responsible for climate change.

On May 3, OPEC+ countries agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. According to earlier plans, this figure should have been three times less. This decision was influenced by events on the world stage, primarily the US tariff wars, which put some pressure on the oil market.

Experts are surprised to note that, despite the decision to increase production, oil prices continue to rise. Thus, according to today's data, the price of Azerbaijani Azeri Light oil in the Italian port of August increased by $2.53 and amounted to $ 68.82 per barrel. The price of a barrel of Azeri Light in the Turkish port of Ceyhan rose slightly less, amounting to 67.61 dollars. Urals crude oil was trading at $54.14 per barrel on June 3, rising more than 5 percent. Brent produced in the North Sea increased in price by almost 5 percent and amounted to 66.83 dollars per barrel.

I must say that in Azerbaijan, all the years since the "green fever" began, the issue of complete abandonment of fossil fuels has been treated pragmatically and realistically. Not only because our country produces oil and gas itself. In general, Baku's policy always demonstrates realism, no matter what it is about. In all areas, approaches are calculated from the point of view of the real situation, without romanticism, which is unacceptable in strategic matters.

For several years now, President Ilham Aliyev has been calmly and patiently pointing out to the ideologues of decarbonization that a complete abandonment of oil and gas is impossible, and insistence on this issue is in the nature of a political campaign. At the opening of the Baku Energy Week, the head of state touched upon this issue again, pointing out that although it might be inappropriate for him, as president of COP29, to talk a lot about oil and gas, Azerbaijan's agenda regarding its presidency was very pragmatic.

"She was far from populism and false narratives. It was based on pragmatic calculations of countries' demand for fossil fuels. And we see what happens in some countries when the balance between fossil fuels and green energy is not maintained. This causes power outages, energy collapse, and can lead to much more complex consequences. Therefore, I consider it the right policy to maintain balance and not follow the trends of the times, which sometimes dictate our steps."

The Azerbaijani President was referring to the large-scale power outages that have befallen a number of European countries. On April 28, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, France and Andorra experienced a blackout. Almost all life in these countries froze for several hours. On May 26, France was once again left without electricity. The shutdown affected a number of settlements, Nice airport, and the transport network. A day earlier, there was a massive power outage in Cannes, where the Cannes International Film Festival was taking place.

Kristina Ruby, Secretary General of the Association of the European Electric Power Industry Eurelectric, told reporters that Europe's outdated energy system and lack of energy storage capacity require trillions of dollars of investment to cope with the growing production of green energy, increasing demand for electricity and avoid power outages. The European Union's energy system mostly dates back to the last century, and half of the lines are over 40 years old. The growth of low-carbon energy production and the growing demand from data centers and electric vehicles require major network repairs, which also need digital protection to withstand cyber attacks, she noted.

The European Commission has estimated that Europe needs to invest between $2.0 trillion and $2.3 trillion in networks by 2050.

In other words, the energy systems of the EU countries are not ready for such a shake-up as the transition to renewable energy sources and a sharp reduction in the use of traditional fuels. Protecting the environment and saving the planet from a climate catastrophe is undoubtedly a very important task, but it must be solved in a way that does not harm.

You don't have to look far, the example of Azerbaijan is right in front of your eyes. While implementing an ambitious green agenda, he continues projects in the field of oil and gas. In the first days of the Baku Energy Week, documents were signed providing for the implementation of three projects in the field of solar energy with a total capacity of 200 megawatts between the Ministry of Energy of Azerbaijan and the Chinese companies China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited and Maire Tecnimont S.p.A. Agreements were also signed with JSC Norm on the construction of solar power plants in Jabrayil.

On June 2, Bp, SOCAR Green and the Azerbaijan Business Development Fund (ABDF) announced the final investment decision on the Shafag solar power plant project. These three entities are shareholders of the Shafag (Jebrayil) Solar Limited (SJSL) joint venture. The 240 MW SES Shafag will be built in the Jabrayil region of Azerbaijan.

Simultaneously with the signing of documents in the field of renewable energy, deals on cooperation in oil and gas projects were concluded on the sidelines of the Baku Energy Week. SOCAR and ExxonMobil Corporation have signed a Memorandum of Understanding providing for cooperation in the oil and gas sector of Azerbaijan. Experts note that cooperation between the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan and one of the largest oil companies in the world, the American ExxonMobil, has recently noticeably intensified.

During the 30th anniversary Baku Energy Forum, Chairman of TotalEnergies Azerbaijan Emmanuel de Guillebon announced the start of the second phase of the development of the Absheron gas field using an innovative underwater concept. It is planned to drill several wells. construction of a 140-kilometer pipeline to Sangachal, as well as a plant.

Azerbaijan plans to invest $2.8 billion in renewable energy by 2027. 8 large solar and wind power plants with a total capacity of about 2 GW will be built and integrated into the national energy system. Azerbaijan has the technical potential of renewable energy sources with a capacity of 135 GW on land and 157 GW at sea. The country has signed contracts and memorandums of understanding with leading foreign companies on renewable energy projects with a total capacity of 10 GW. At the same time, Azerbaijan continues to systematically fulfill its obligations to partners who buy its oil and gas.

Speaking at the 11th ministerial meeting of the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council in early April, President Ilham Aliyev highlighted a number of important points. He said: "Today, more than ever before, it is obvious that energy security is an integral part of the national security of countries. I would also say that today we can talk about industrial safety, because for the development of industry we need energy resources, we need petrochemical products, we need fertilizers, and Azerbaijan is a producer and exporter of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemical products and fertilizers... We hope that, despite the very ambitious green agenda in Europe, fossil fuel producers and fossil fuels themselves, as an important factor in energy security, will not be forgotten, and there will be no prejudice against them."

It seems that Europe has already passed the stage of prejudice.