Iran has left Armenia without a future

Bravado is not the best way to demonstrate your strength. More often it is a cover for weaknesses and an attempt to play ahead in verbal battles. If you're lucky, your opponent will get scared and bite his tongue. Bravado is especially good where no one will demand proof of your strength and power. All this concerns not only human complexes, but also powers. Really strong countries speak out the way, for example, Beijing speaks out, always trying to smooth out sharp corners, despite its capabilities. Our neighbors Russia and Iran are the opposite of him, and the United States cannot without bravado.

Speaking of Iran. Our southern neighbor has always wanted everyone to think that he is the one who determines the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. He decides what should happen here and how, and has the right to forbid or allow something to someone. Today, the bravura statements from Tehran are mainly related to the topic of the Zangezur corridor.

"Iran has thwarted an attempt to create the Zangezur Corridor. When some countries tried, under the pretext of creating the Zangezur Corridor, to connect Nakhchivan with Azerbaijan through the territory of Armenia, a project that would essentially mean splitting up and blocking the Iranian corridor to Europe, the Islamic Republic of Iran strongly opposed this plan and disrupted its implementation." This was proudly stated by Ali Akbar Velayati, Adviser to the Supreme Leader of Iran on international Affairs.

According to Tasnim, according to him, "Iran has never been as powerful, independent and influential as it is today. One of the clearest signs of this power was Iran's rapid and decisive response to the crisis in the South Caucasus region." Moreover, Vilayati said that Biden was ready to launch the corridor, but failed to deal with Iran. According to Khamenei's adviser, this shows that Iran has managed to prevent the penetration of NATO into the region even without Russia's help. Moreover, Iran, it turns out, "saved" not only the South Caucasus, but also Russia, which they wanted to surround...

If we do not recall the recent successful and effective visit of Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian to Azerbaijan, one would think that the same problems remain in relations between our two countries that led to the crisis a couple of years ago. But we remember this visit, so there will be no doubt about the sincerity of the Iranian leader and his honest intentions towards Azerbaijan and the Azerbaijani people.

To say that Vilayati's statements pleased the Armenian side is an understatement. Our neighbors saw in his words the promise of future support in all matters. The fact that Iran has deprived Armenia of the only chance to become needed by someone is met with fireworks and dancing. Our neighbors hardly understand what they are happy about. Probably because there is a strong advocate nearby who can prevent the implementation of Azerbaijan's plans, which Armenia itself would never have been capable of. Just think, America itself lobbied for a road through Zangezur, and Tehran vetoed it, and there is no road.

But it's all nonsense. There are bravura statements, fairy tales about influencing the affairs of the South Caucasus, and preventing the presence of NATO. Vilayati on the eve of negotiations with Washington, I would like to present Iran as a strong side at least in this way. This is understandable, but these statements will not affect the outcome of negotiations with the United States in any way, but they may create an unpleasant background in relations with Baku. Khamenei's adviser should not forget about the recent history when relations between the two countries became seriously complicated. Yes, he stated at that time that Iran would never attack Azerbaijan. However, unreasonable threats against Azerbaijan, provocations, including military ones, an unprecedented attack on the Armenian Embassy in Tehran, and delaying the issue of punishing the perpetrator have all undermined relations. We are not talking about the decades of Iran's open cooperation with the Armenian occupiers.

In previous years, Mr. Vilayati openly tried to tell Baku what to do and how to do it. Once, criticizing the Azerbaijani authorities' fight against radicalism, he accused official Baku of "anti-Islamic behavior" and pointed out that this "contradicts the opinion of the majority of the Muslim population of this republic, and such behavior is imposed on Azerbaijanis." In response to this blatant interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign country and attempts at mentoring, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry noted that no one gave Vilayati the right to speak on behalf of the Muslims of Azerbaijan.

Taking advantage of the Armenian occupation, the global support of Armenia and Baku's weak position in the international arena at that time, the then leadership of Iran hoped to strengthen its influence through the religious factor and assume the role of advocate for the Muslims of Azerbaijan. These approaches have also made themselves felt during the recent escalation between the two countries. So, in one of his articles, the adviser to the supreme leader of Iran made an ambiguous statement: "Today it should be loudly stated that every Azeri is an Iranian, and vice versa, even if they have different passports... This is true, even if the opponents of Iran and Azerbaijan, dear to our hearts, do not want it."

By the way, Wilayati did not always consider Iran to be so powerful. An interesting fact can be found in the media: in 1995, as Foreign Minister, at a Cabinet meeting in Tabriz, he stated: "Why should we invest in Azerbaijan (South Azerbaijan)? Azerbaijan will secede from Iran sooner or later, so I do not consider it advisable to invest in these areas."

I wonder if Khamenei's adviser remembers this today? In any case, the journalists have not forgotten this.

As for the Zangezur corridor, the motives and interests of the Iranian side in this matter are completely transparent. And they have nothing to do with the "encirclement of Russia", "NATO penetration" and other arguments. Iran is not interested in the Zangezur corridor for only one reason - it does not want to share transit with Armenia. He himself wants to become part of the Middle Corridor, and this can only be done by dragging over the transit "blanket" offered by Azerbaijan to the Armenian side. And, admittedly, he succeeded. Currently, Iran is actively and rapidly completing the construction of the Araz corridor. They are in a hurry, fearing that Armenia may come to its senses. The Zangezur corridor is 20 kilometers shorter than the Araz corridor, and the terrain in Zangezur is more favorable. And by and large, the main thing for Baku is to have a connection with Nakhchivan, and through Iran or Armenia is not important. Therefore, our Armenian neighbors should not celebrate the victory by listening to the statements of Ali Akbar Vilayati. They did not win, but lost, being left without international transit, which only Azerbaijan could give them.

From the very beginning, no one talked about the alienation of Armenia's sovereign territories, cutting off Iran's routes to the West, and other nonsense voiced by the adviser to the supreme leader of Iran. Iran needed the corridor to run through its territory. And this is natural, because any normal, future-minded state would jump at such an idea. And Armenia allowed such a profitable project to be snatched from its hands, which could radically change the face of this country. A very small number of people in Armenia understand this. Most people today are thanking Tehran for depriving Armenians of their last opportunities.

And, of course, we need to upset Mr. Vilayati about the NATO presence in the region. The Zangezur corridor could have prevented this coming, as it would have removed the influence of Armenia's Western allies. China's influence would increase here, not the United States, and, with all due respect, the former Iranian foreign minister is clearly fantasizing, attributing a vested interest in this project to the former White House administration. And if we talk about the presence of NATO, then by preventing the construction of a road through Zangezur, Iran has just helped the Western allies to strengthen their presence in Armenia. It is very strange that Mr. Vilayati shares fantasies and does not see the presence on the territory of Armenia of the mission of NATO member countries, military representatives of the bloc, the Armenian-American exercises and trainings of the North Atlantic bloc held in this country.

These are the realities of our region, which Mr. Vilayati cannot influence in any way.