In case of an attempt to solve the Iranian problem by military force, the country can block up to a third of the world's oil exports, largely through striking tankers that come from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, professor at Kazakh National University of Defense Georgiy Dubovtsev believes.
He said it cannot be said that a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities will not bring costly ramifications. Everything that could be destroyed would be rebuilt within a few years.
"And no one is capable of occupying Iran, as the population of this country is unwaveringly patriotic. Everyone will resist foreign invasion. But the results of such military attacks can be disastrous not only for the Gulf region, but for the whole world. Attacking Iran would not only result in a large-scale military conflict, but would also destabilize the situation in the entire Middle East, "Dubovtsev told journalists.
He said in case of war, Iran will have more arguments in favor of possessing nuclear weapons and abolition of the IAEA control system.
"Secondly, the Iranian government has sufficient methods to influence the U.S. and Israel, such the termination of oil supplies, supporting anti-Israeli and anti-American forces in the region and organizing direct rebel attacks via Lebanon," he said.
Via its ballistic missiles, Iran could also strike a blow at the U.S. military bases in the southern Persian Gulf. Enforcement actions can provoke active measures for organization of the world oil crisis, and not only by suspension of oil exports from Iran, which will push up prices for "black gold." In addition, Tehran, speaking as a victim, can find allies amongst Muslim nations.
"It is still important to pursue the same goal for the P5+1 group: the Iranian nuclear program should be resolved only through peaceful means. And if the Iranian side presents a clear report in Almaty, the U.S. is ready for a diplomatic solution of the problem by discussing it at the multilateral level," the expert said.