Russian expert: Azerbaijan is much more stronger than Armenia

How can you assess the past year in terms of progress in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Regardless of what media and public representatives in both Azerbaijan and Armenia say, I believe the results of last year are positive because 2009 saw high-level meetings. Of course, I would like to see concrete results.

In your opinion, do the conflicting parties reach certain agreement last year?

I an confident that they could. But both sides will not talk about it until concrete steps are made. Both sides will be limited to the above-mentioned phrase until the main issue is not resolved.

What do you mean by concrete steps by the sides? What is a concrete step by the Azerbaijani side?

I will give more extensive reply to your question and start with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has become stronger both economically and politically over the past few years. At present, Azerbaijan's GDP is four times higher than that of Armenia. In 2009, it increased by 6 to 8 percent, while that of Armenia reduced 16-17 percent which is more than in any of the CIS country. Azerbaijan outperforms Armenia also in military terms. All this suggests that Azerbaijan is much more stronger than the then and current Armenia in all respects.

I will say probably paradoxical idea in this regard. Ultimately, both countries have to make some compromise. Many have spoke about what the compromise implies many times. I think that it is earlier to speak about it today. This is not the main thing. I believe that it is easier to compromise from a position of strength than from a position of weakness. I'm talking about a compromise from a strategic viewpoint and I think that today it possible most of all.

And how do you see the compromise?

I believe that all possible options have already been voiced, discussed, stamped and are known to all. I will not say which one is preferable. There are obvious preconditions for this.

Why Azerbaijan, the land of which has been occupied, and as you mentioned, many times stronger than Armenia in all major indicators, should be the first to compromise, albeit from a position of strength?

I did not say anything about who should compromise first. It is not so important. Both sides will compromise at the same time. If Azerbaijan were weak, it would never have compromised. It is easier to do this from a position of strength. And this makes sense, since the other side, in this case, Armenia, understands that the move will be made from viewpoint of strength and it will have to act based on this.

I want to mention another very serious event in the region. Older people remember that in early 1970s rapprochement between the U.S. and China began with an invitation of the U.S. team for ping-pong in Beijing. So, they called this fact "pingpong" diplomacy. What happened between Ankara and Yerevan is called "football" diplomacy accordingly which will push Armenia to compromise in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

The Armenian-Turkish protocols aimed at normalizing relations have not been ratified yet. Armenia expects Turkey to ratify the protocols while Ankara expects concrete steps from Yerevan in terms of settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In this case, a vicious circle is formed which Yerevan has to unlock. Do you  believe the protocols will be ratified this year?

I am not surprised at such an attitude by the two parliaments at all. I remember Soviet Union parliament supported thaw between the USSR and the FRG in the 1970s. As a so-called historical optimist, I hope very much that these protocols will finally be ratified. It meets everybody’s interests. It will benefit Turkey, which wants to integrate into the EU and Armenia, which will have open borders with Turkey.

Azerbaijan will also benefit since partially normalized Turkey-Armenia relations will give Ankara leverage of pressure over Armenia also in terms of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

In your view, how will the Kremlin act once Yerevan falls under Ankara’s pressure and accordingly, comes out of Moscow’s zone of influence?

I think Moscow would react calmly to Turkey’s role as a regional leader. You know, we have already witnessed it. When the Union collapsed, the Central Asia countries were in a euphoria of possibility of rapprochement with Turkey and adopting its model of economic development. However, after two decades, we see that each country has its own model of development, its policies emanating from national interests.

Turkey itself easily takes the concept of a regional leader. It is now more concerned over  expansion of economic and cultural ties with its neighbors. There is nothing wrong about it. The Kremlin will unlikely be particularly worried about it. After all, Russia is interested in stabilized situation along its borders and good relations with Turkey.

Why do you believe that Russia is interested in resolving the conflict?

Russia is very much interested in stabilized situation around its borders, including ... ,I would say, primarily in the South Caucasus after the well-known sad events in 2008, which spoiled relations with Tbilisi, led to Georgia's withdrawal from CIS with many other negative consequences.

Any option of conflict resolution that would satisfy both sides would be acceptable for Russia. It is much better than existence and aggravation of the conflict from time to time which can lead to very dire consequences.

Do you mean military action? Incidentally, if Azerbaijan is tired of waiting for real steps from Yerevan, a military solution to the conflict is not excluded. How the Kremlin would react to this?

Any military aggravation is a catastrophe which nobody wants. I am sure that both parties understand that the war is not the best way. Nothing good will come of it. Even though some achieves successes, and another fails, war is a tragedy for all. It claims the lives of young children, destroys families and has a detrimental impact on the economy. It should be understood that nobody beyond borders of these countries wants war. Everything can be solved, everything can be negotiated ...

H. Hamidov