Situation in S. Caucasus is unpredictable: political expert

Day.Az: Recently there have been much talks claiming that Azerbaijan may reduce funding for the Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars railway project. Tbilisi also makes similar statements. On its part, Azerbaijan says works are carried out under schedule. What are your views on this issue?

Rasim Agayev: The talks are due to the fact that intentions of Turkey and Armenia to mend relations open up new corridors and routes. It also changes geopolitical situation in the region as a whole and makes political climate much healthier creating new opportunities.

I think if the borders are opened, (I have no doubt about it),  many planned projects will be reviewed and put aside. Nabucco project will be reconsidered in a different way and Azerbaijan’s access to Tbilisi will also be reconsidered -  they were forced. Routes through Georgia had been laid solely because of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and strained Turkish-Armenian relations, as well as the Iranian factor.

In the latter case, routes through Tabriz to Turkey would be the most politically and economically favorable for Azerbaijan. Therefore, there is no need to surprise at new realities. 

Serious experts including those from Armenia, Russia, West  who analyze the situation and give a fairly cautious forecasts, say that the fate of that a number of projects is unknown including a route to Kars.

This is linked with not only with what happens between Turkey and Armenia. This is due to the fact that changes that could happen may alter the situation in Georgia. This country can no longer mean a communication corridor to Armenia. Azerbaijan will cease to carry everything through Georgia. It's more expensive.  

Given the relations between Tbilisi and Moscow, Georgia can end up in the same stalemate which Armenia faces now. I think the fate of the Akhalkalaki-Kars railway project will depend on how foreign policy orientations of Azerbaijan and Armenia will be shaped. I believe no one will deal with them seriously in near future.

Q: You mean this project actually loses its original meaning in the context of the possible opening of Turkish-Armenian border?

A: Of course. Because, this project and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum have been implemented on the basis of the then realities for Azerbaijan and Turkey. There were no other ways out at that time.

Of course, existing pipelines will remain. But the question is that everything will depend on developments in the next year or two (I'm talking about the short term). All existing geopolitical and political realities already undergo some correction, and we will witness even more new developments.

Even new military action is not be ruled out in this respect. The situation is not so predictable and favorable as it might seem at first glance.

Q: Once future developments are unpredictable, does it make a sense for Azerbaijan to continue funding the Georgian section of Baku-Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki-Kars?

A: I do not think that the Azerbaijani government will now speed up this project. It is senseless to continue to fund it now. Why to do it? Azerbaijan would better to suspend the work on the Georgian section. Some general trends and policy of great powers point to “pacification" of the South Caucasus. And if it happens, it will not bypass Azerbaijan.

So why to push Georgian routes while new ones could open up in future? Warming relations with Iran in the future is also not ruled out after which Georgian direction would lose its relevancy, too.

Day.Az