Dangerous revenge games: how Kocharyan rushes to power

The Armenian opposition has launched a new round of attacks on the current government. The Karabakh clan, which was expelled from the country's leadership in April 2018, believes that the time has come to eliminate Nikol Pashinyan and regain power. The first time such a hope appeared among the revanchists was during the snap parliamentary elections of 2021, when this front rallied in the hope of getting votes against the backdrop of a lost war. But to the great horror of the clan, the Armenian people voted for the prime minister's party again, and the revanchists had to go into the shadows for a while.

Today, the Kocharyan-Sargsyan tandem decided to try their luck again. And not to wait for the elections, but to achieve the impeachment of the prime Minister. The Republican Party of Armenia, led by war criminal Serzh Sargsyan, has appealed to the opposition parliamentary faction "I have the Honor" with a proposal to initiate a vote of no confidence in Nikol Pashinyan. "I have the honor" is a faction formed in 2021 to strike at Pashinyan. Then she failed the case. Now new hopes are pinned on her. Justifying their hopes, the RPA stated that the current government "has not implemented the program approved in 2021."

I must say that it has become fashionable for the leaders of the Karabakh clan to give interviews in recent months. Apparently, believing that the conditions for success have developed, Serzh Sargsyan and Robert Kocharyan do not skimp on lengthy statements and "sensational" details. However, all their revelations have not caused anything but scandals so far.

In his last interview, Sargsyan did not hide who he wanted to see as prime minister. He stated that he would have nothing against Kocharyan or any of his team. Kocharyan himself has nothing against returning to power and is doing some work for this. A job that is not available to Sargsyan.

For example, he has been actively using his connections in Moscow lately. According to Armenian media reports, he has been there more than once since the beginning of the year and met with high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation. No one has a particular question about what was discussed at these meetings. Taking advantage of Russia's clearly visible return to Armenia, Kocharyan wants to ride on the Russian back into the building with columns at 26 Baghramyan Street.

The biggest problem here is the voters. We also need to work with them to avoid a misfire like in 2021. The task facing the revanchists is not easy, because if it was not possible to defeat Pashinyan after the military failure, now you need to find very effective arguments to make an impression. Opposition emissaries travel to the regions, intimidate citizens with "Azerbaijani aggression", "collusion with Baku" and other nonsense. The other day, the representative of "I have the Honor" Tigran Abrahamyan held meetings with residents of Syunik (Western Zangezur) and imposed on Syunik residents concerns about the "Azerbaijani threat", which, they say, the current government is unable to resist.

Sargsyan and Kocharyan should hurry. Criminal cases of corruption have been initiated against both of them in Armenia. Recently, the materials of the criminal case against Serzh Sargsyan on charges of bribery in the amount of about $ 3 million were submitted to the court. Robert Kocharyan is also involved in the same case. In 2023, the case against Kocharyan was dismissed for the alleged prescription of the crime, but last year it was sent back for further investigation.

Nikol Pashinyan spoke about this the other day. At a government meeting on June 5, he stated that the second president of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, was a bribe taker and this was fixed by a court decision. "The man went and asked that the statute of limitations of the case against him be applied. And this happens when a person admits that he is a bribe taker," the Prime Minister said, promising from now on to always add the word "bribe taker" to the name of the second president.

The clan is furious and expects to get even with Pashinyan by achieving impeachment.

The coming to power of the revanchists will definitely mean the Armenian statehood. Let's explain why. Everything is simply explained and follows from the statements of the former presidents themselves.

In a recent interview with journalists, Serzh Sargsyan stated that the "Karabakh issue" remains open, "its page is not closed." He is confident that "pivotal changes" in this issue are possible in the future.

"If there are individuals or political forces who can keep this idea alive, I am sure that one day influential forces outside Armenia will also be interested in it. And then there will be an opportunity to put it into practice," Sargsyan said.

Kocharyan is more cunning than Serge and tries to avoid such moments in his interviews. He does not talk about an "open page" or "influential forces outside Armenia." He advocates revenge and the search for a new patron who is ready to fight for the Armenians, as it was in the early 90s, only in other words. He points out not to dissolve the Minsk Group in any case, not to agree with Baku's demands, and considers the recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan a strategic mistake of the current government. It is unknown whether Kocharyan is negotiating in Moscow to return Russia to the agenda of the early 90s. Today's Russian authorities are unlikely to take such an adventure, and Rob is too cunning to make it clear to his followers. Even today, the Armenian opposition secretly hopes for Moscow and associates hopes for revenge with the emerging return of its influence. There was never any hope for Western guardians. It was understood in revanchist circles that they would not go so far in their support, at least because of their geographical remoteness. Iran, a close neighbor, will not clash with Baku either. Provocateurs have made such attempts, but they have led to nothing. Only Russia remains, but it's not easy either. Putin is not Yeltsin or Gorbachev.

Kocharyan is cunning and lets Sagrgsian go ahead for toxic statements. He himself wants to appear like a professional, a sophisticated politician and an aristocrat. It became clear after his February interview that he was preparing to replace Nikol Pashinyan. He was silent for a long time, until the wind of change appeared in global geopolitics. This interview marked Rob's return to the game. He actually outlined his program in it, and the fact that Serzh Sargsyan is not against his premiership suggests that there is already a consensus in opposition circles on this issue. The opposition has chosen who will be promoted to replace Pashinyan, although the RPA is going to nominate party member David Ambartsumyan as a figurehead. These are the sets in which Kocharyan himself will eventually come to the fore. But he will appear only when there are signs of success, and a certain Ambartsumyan will act as a fool's ass. Interestingly, the media initially reported on the candidacy of Armen Ashotyan, the RPA deputy chairman, but then it turned out that they were mistaken. Did you make a mistake, or did you overplay your hand?

Revanchists are sure that the recent scandals, the growing influence of Russia, with which Pashinyan managed to ruin relations in the end, his clash with the church - all this is already playing against the eccentric prime minister. But this is only an appearance. Dashnak Armen Rustamyan, a member of the pro-Kocharian opposition Armenia faction, believes that society must first be prepared for this, and the parliament and government must be finally lowered in the eyes of the people so that they understand that "it is necessary to get rid of the ruling force as soon as possible."

And here a very important question arises: does the Armenian people want revenge? Kocharyan and Sargsyan asked the Armenian society if it was ready for a new war and its catastrophic consequences for Armenia.

Kocharyan already tried using Galstanyan, a con artist, a year ago.  Zarbazan declared himself the leader of the opposition and intended to overthrow Pashinyan by the hands of the crowd. Initially, as reported, Kocharyan was supposed to join the march on Yerevan. But when he saw that Galstanyan was being followed by only a small group of separatists and revanchists, he decided not to embarrass himself and wait for more favorable times. The advertising of the march with the participation of the ex-president did not help - the Armenians did not join him. This was a signal that mass actions should not be counted on, and now Kocharyan and Co. are trying to solve the problem through parliament. 

However, this is an even more difficult path. The opposition does not have enough forces in parliament to make such a decision. According to the legislation in force in Armenia, at least 54 deputies out of 107 must vote for impeachment in order to express no confidence in the Prime Minister. The number of members of the "I have the Honor" and "Armenia" factions is 34 deputies. Meanwhile, the "Civil Contract" has 69 votes. There are 4 more independent MPs, and the opposition is currently fighting for their votes, although they are unable to resolve the issue. A split in Pashinyan's party can save Kocharyan's idea, but there is no such thing. In addition, failure to promote impeachment threatens the opposition with the loss of the opportunity to raise it in the next six months. Again, in accordance with the law.   

What will happen if the opposition somehow manages to return to power and to the previous policy? If they receive real support from outside, which is doubtful, the revanchists may try to start a new conflict. However, there are doubts that the same Kocharyan will decide on such a step. When he was president, he tried to behave very carefully, not making harsh statements, and not because he was sophisticated in diplomacy, but because he was afraid of angering Baku. Although Rob dismissed Ter-Petrosyan for "defeatism," he himself understood perfectly well that the first president, the one who led the occupation and ethnic cleansing, was right: Armenia had lost and its future was unenviable. Serge continued this cautious policy, trying not to provoke a war, the results of which were predetermined. Pashinyan turned out to be a simpleton and a populist, accustomed to counting on the crowd. But the crowd failed.

I think Pashinyan is sincere when he says that there will be no new war. Of course it won't, because our neighbors aren't suicidal.