Armenians outside comfort zone – how realities are perceived from there

It is very interesting to observe the reaction in Armenia to the theses related to Western Azerbaijan. On the one hand, opposition circles are spreading panic and shouting about an imminent threat to Armenia. On the other hand, it is clearly visible that the loudest voices do not believe in the possibility of an attack or annexation by Azerbaijan, and are merely using this topic to stir up passions.

The provocateurs pretend not to understand what Baku means when it talks about returning to Western Azerbaijan. For nearly forty years, Armenia has tried to erase from memory the three hundred thousand Azerbaijanis who were expelled in the late 1980s. The fate of these people has been reduced to the level of a ghostly myth. All traces of their centuries?long presence in the territories now occupied by Armenia have been virtually erased. Today, almost nothing reminds us of the Azerbaijani history of these lands. Apparently, Armenia believes that if there’s nothing, there’s nothing to be done. There really is no court: no one has ever asked the Armenian side about the disappearance of the second-largest ethnic group from the country’s territory. Throughout the years of the conflict, Armenia has been in a particularly well?protected comfort zone maintained by external players, and now it has fallen out of it and cannot return. It is not surprising that the prospect of the indigenous population returning has come as a bolt from the blue. They didn’t expect it.

The term “Western Azerbaijan” is simply a geographical definition. It does not imply territorial claims and does not carry a separatist or extremist connotation, unlike, for example, the expressions “Western Armenia” or “Eastern Armenia”. When discussing the historical affiliation of the territories occupied by the neighbouring country with Azerbaijan, Baku does not attach any reunification projects to this. It is merely a statement of facts regarding relatively recent history. The Armenian side bases its claims on unprovable events from ancient times. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, relies on the realities of the past hundred-odd years. These realities are reflected not in fantasies, but in real documents with signatures and seals. Azerbaijani lands were indeed transferred to Armenia step by step under various pretexts or were seized as a result of bloodshed. But this does not mean that Azerbaijan intends to demand them back. It respects borders and international law, and, most importantly, strives for peace and stability in the region.A WORD FROM AN EXPERT

Sohbet Mammadov, Director of the Irevan Analytical Center:

I follow the situation in the Armenian media and see that the Armenian side is genuinely irritated and concerned. The term “Western Azerbaijan” is perceived as some kind of encroachment on Armenia’s territorial integrity, which in the long term allegedly threatens with a new war — only this time on Armenian territory. Opposition forces tirelessly push this topic. The population of Armenia is being methodically intimidated by the alleged plan by Baku to return 300,000 Azerbaijani refugees to their homeland, by imagined claims to Armenian territories, and so on. In fact, there are no territorial claims. If we had had territorial claims, the 44?day war could have lasted longer, and, as President Ilham Aliyev said at the PEA congress recently, today the third Arch of Victory could have been erected in the center of Yerevan. But Baku has never had and has no plans to annex territories. I would like to remind you that all this fuss is taking place against the backdrop of already signed documents in which both states recognize each other’s territorial integrity and the intensification of the process towards concluding a peace treaty. A year ago, the text of the peace treaty was initialed in Washington. Does anyone really think that, having achieved such progress and virtually forcing Armenia to make peace, Azerbaijan would risk these achievements? There is no doubt that the opposition, which is under the influence of external forces and dreams of revenge, will try to sabotage this process. I think that what is happening around the topic of Western Azerbaijan is precisely serving these purposes. The revanchists will continue to use this term as a scarecrow for the Armenian population for a long time to come.

The day before, Armenian media decided to once again recall the words previously spoken by Deputy Speaker of the Milli Majlis Ziyafet Askerov, who stated that returning to Western Azerbaijan is one of the main tasks.It should be recalled that after the “Return to Western Azerbaijan” congress, which was held in June in the Ordubad district of the NAR, Askerov answered journalists’ questions and emphasized that this thesis is not an expression of territorial claims against Armenia. However, every Azerbaijani has the right to return to the land of their ancestors, and this is their legitimate, historical, and moral right, said the Deputy Speaker of the Milli Majlis. According to him, the goal of the displaced people is to return to their native lands peacefully, within the framework of international law, and to live there in safety and with dignity.

Everything is more than clear and transparent. Azerbaijan is not talking about territories; it is only talking about the return to their lands of people who have been subjected to ethnic cleansing. Armenia cannot deny the fact of their expulsion.

What is causing even greater concern among neighboring countries is that Baku is bringing the issue of the return of Azerbaijani refugees to Armenia to the international level. In Armenia, they are accustomed to believing that only the Armenian side has the right to demand, from all platforms, a dignified and safe return of Armenians to Azerbaijani lands. Now that Azerbaijan has officially reminded the world of the existence of three hundred thousand Azerbaijani refugees, Armenian propaganda has reached a dead end. It doesn’t matter what some retired European officials say about the rights of Azerbaijanis: “this is different.” In Yerevan, it is well understood that the issue of the return of the Azerbaijani population will inevitably be pitted against demands to open roads for Armenians to Karabakh. Therefore, the government has wisely rejected such a measure at the highest level. However, it has failed to bring the opposition and the separatists who have settled in the country to reason, so the topic of Western Azerbaijan will remain on the agenda until the last voices die down.

In September, speaking at the 54th meeting of the UN Human Rights Council, Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stated that the exiled Azerbaijani population in Armenia has the right to a safe and dignified return to their homeland. Moreover, he stated that Baku expects the High Commissioner and other specialized UN bodies to address the issue of the rights of Azerbaijanis who have been expelled from their homes in Armenia.

Today, political analyst Hakob Badalyan recalled this statement with concern, interpreting the inalienable rights of the Azerbaijani population of Armenia, which had been subjected to ethnic cleansing and are protected by international law, as territorial claims. Azerbaijan, the analyst told journalists, is planning to “apply spiritual, cultural, and confessional aggression against Armenia” and is “advancing its claims against Armenia not only in the military?political and legal spheres, but also in the demographic, spiritual, and cultural areas.”

Badalyan is very concerned about the “strategic dependence on Azerbaijan” and the fact that Baku has already begun to push this issue on the international stage. According to the Armenian expert, Western Azerbaijan is “not just a whim of the winner or, as Yerevan is trying to portray it, a mirror response to Armenia’s statements about Karabakh. This is a strategic and profound goal.”

The Armenian expert also fears that Baku will succeed in legitimizing the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis, just as it managed to legitimize the new realities in Karabakh after the voluntary exodus of Armenians. Indeed, there is plenty to worry about here. It was expected that Azerbaijan would be placed under a legal blockade for a long time and would be subjected to sanctions for “ethnic cleansing,” with all the ensuing consequences. Against this backdrop, its victories would lose all meaning, because Armenians would return en masse with international guarantees and even more stringent demands. But instead, presidents and diplomats are arriving in Khankendi today, even though the calculations seemed to have been made perfectly.

This, of course, was a very painful blow. And it’s no coincidence that the neighbors react so nervously when they hear about Western Azerbaijan and the prospect of the return of Azerbaijanis. If Baku managed to neutralize the seemingly unshakable global consensus regarding the “Armenian identity” of the Karabakh region so quickly, it means that, if there is a real plan for the return of refugees, it will be able to promote it just as consistently.

Is there such a real plan? It seems that for now this topic is more of a warning to the Armenian side. And it’s not so much the official Yerevan, which is not happy about the stir stirred up by the revanchists, as it is those circles that are too actively pushing the theme of the “decent and collective return” of Armenians to Karabakh, filing lawsuits in international courts, and attacking international organizations. Opposition deputies and politicians raise this issue in the PACE, the UN, and the European Parliament, trying to put forward demands at any convenient opportunity, making extensive use of the diaspora and lobbying efforts. After such a “threat” as the prospect of living next to Azerbaijanis appeared on the horizon, this crowd can only fight back, forgetting about everything else. Judging by the publications in the media and social networks, the warning was heard and is already in effect.

And more. We have talked about this more than once, but let’s repeat it. The Azerbaijani state never turns its people into a tool for blackmail or cannon fodder, and it does not put them in danger for political purposes or self?promotion. Until Armenian society is ready to coexist with Azerbaijanis, until Azerbaijanis receive clear guarantees of security — which Yerevan is not capable of yet — our compatriots will not be able to return to the lands of their ancestors. This is an objective reality.

Here, the revanchists can rest easy. But we cannot guarantee anything else.