TRIPP: Yerevan is looking for problems where there are none

During the 8th Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan in Avaza (Turkmenistan), the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym?Jomart Tokayev, mentioned the “Trump Route” in the context of transport connectivity. Speaking about forecasts for cargo traffic through the Caspian Sea, he stated that “it would be possible to discuss, at least at the expert level, the integration of the Middle Corridor with the TRIPP transport initiative, which would expand the existing potential and meet the long?term interests of all our states.”

Some people interpreted the mention of the “Trump Route” as a signal of Astana’s interest in Armenia’s railways and its readiness to buy the concession from Russian Railways. In recent months, Kazakhstan’s name has been mentioned repeatedly in the context of discussions surrounding the Russian concession over Armenia’s railways. However, the Kazakh side’s interest in the road through Zangezur should be interpreted more as the interest of one of the key links in the Middle Corridor. Moreover, the President of Kazakhstan spoke about the role of TRIPP even before Yerevan raised the issue of the Russian concession.

Nevertheless, rumors about a possible change of concessionaire are already circulating.

It was recalled that recently, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that one of the companies in Kazakhstan is interested in restoring sections of Armenia’s railway leading to the borders of Azerbaijan and Turkiye. The name of the company has not been disclosed, and the Kazakh side has not confirmed whether such interest exists. When Kazakhstan was first mentioned in Yerevan in the spring as a possible new concessionaire, they denied that any such discussions had taken place. However, in September, Nikol Pashinyan stated again that he would not object to a scenario in which Kazakhstan would take over the management of Armenia’s railway system.

Speaking on the “Third Term” program on Bun TV, Pashinyan noted that Kazakhstan is among the countries that naturally come to mind as a potential operator due to its well?developed infrastructure and experience in investing in the railway sector. According to Pashinyan, the further operation of the Armenian railway within the framework of the Russian concession may lead to the emergence of new regional transport routes bypassing Armenia. As an illustration of his concerns, the Armenian Prime minister cited the Kars-Diluja branch line under construction in Turkiye.

To be honest, this example surprised me a little and showed that Pashinyan was not very aware of the situation. The Armenian prime minister seems to be not very well acquainted with geography if he believes that global cargo flows along this route will go through Nakhchivan, bypassing Armenia. How does he imagine this? Bypassing Armenia while traveling from Turkiye to Azerbaijan via Nakhchivan is only possible if the Araz corridor through Iran is built, and this is ruled out under TRIPP. By the way, for some reason, Pashinyan did not mention the route through Iran, even though it is a direct competitor to the Armenian transit route.

The Kars–Dilucu road, which he proposes to compete with TRIPP, is actually being built precisely as part of the future Zangezur corridor, i.e., the “Trump Route”. It is being laid in the direction of Nakhchivan in order to connect with the Nakhchivan railway network and, via Armenia, reach Azerbaijan. This line is not being built to bypass Armenia, as the Armenian prime minister seems to believe. The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars corridor already exists and is effectively functioning, bypassing Armenia. To work with this route, Turkiye does not need to build railway lines.

Pashinyan surprised even more by suggesting that international cargo could enter Armenia from the direction of Nor Nazar and exit through Agarak, and instead, international flows would not go through Armenia but through Nakhchivan to Turkiye. Both towns mentioned by Pashinyan are located on the border with Iran and are related to TRIPP only insofar as they are situated along the route of this corridor. Does the Armenian prime minister propose redirecting international flows from Turkey to Iran? Seriously? He hasn’t forgotten that the main goal of the “Trump Route” is to connect the main part of Azerbaijan with its autonomous region? Armenia in this project acts merely as a transit territory. It can benefit from the emerging opportunity, but, judging by Pashinyan’s statements, it is getting distracted.

It is likely that Pashinyan meant something else. He probably meant the railway that should be built from the border with the NAR in Yeraskh to the border with Turkiye, so that international transit would be carried out through Armenia’s border. That is, so that the Middle Corridor would pass through Nakhchivan, re?enter Armenian territory, and then extend to Turkiye via its border. In Soviet times, transportation was carried out exactly this way — Moscow tried to prevent any direct connection between the Azerbaijani and Turkish sides. The first bridge across the Araz River on the Azerbaijani?Turkish border was built only in the early 1990s — due to the Armenian blockade of the autonomy.

But now the times are different, and Armenia’s neighbours are choosing their priorities themselves. For Azerbaijan, it is more advantageous, more convenient and safer if its cargo is delivered and shipped via the border of a state that is friendly to it. But no one is preventing Armenia from building — that is, restoring — a road from the border with the NAR to the Turkish border. No one is preventing her from restoring the road through Gyumri and running trains to Turkiye and Georgia outside the TRIPP project. In Armenia, they don’t quite understand the philosophy of this project. It’s not meant to implement the “Crossroads of the World” using American money — that is, to upgrade and rebuild the country’s transport system. TRIPP is limited to a specific route, and it’s a route of communications (transport, energy, digital) running from the main part of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through the territory of Armenia.

To connect its border with Turkiye to TRIPP, the Armenian side in Yeraskh needs to lay only about two kilometers of track, but it has no experience in building railways — others have always done it for it. Therefore, today it is forced to simply watch as Turkiye forcing its 224 kilometers to Dilucu.

Wishing to get rid of the Russian concession by any means, Yerevan is looking for pretexts and explanations for this, which, on the contrary, make everything even more complicated and convoluted.

Earlier, Yerevan appealed to Russian Railways with a request to restore sections leading to the borders of Azerbaijan and Turkiye, but so far nothing is happening on this “front”. Recently, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk reported that Russia is expecting a response from Yerevan to Russia’s proposals on this matter. So far, Yerevan has remained silent.

Next week, a visit to Yerevan by the head of Russian Railways, Oleg Belozerov, is expected, during which everything may become clearer. But Nikol Pashinyan has effectively already made it clear why the Armenian side is not responding to Russian Railways’ proposals. She wants someone else to handle this work. In particular, a Kazakhstani company, which, according to the Armenian prime minister, has shown interest. A company from a third country cannot start work because the roads are under a Russian concession. This requires either the consent of the concessionaire or the transfer of the concession to another party. Moreover, Kazakhstan will not do this, as it has no reason to spoil relations with Russia over Armenia. By and large, TRIPP cannot be built without the concessionaire’s consent, especially considering that Armenia will not actually be the owner of these communications. To be more precise, it will only be the owner to a quarter of the extent. But there are nuances here, in particular the interests of Azerbaijan and the relations between Baku and Moscow, which could resolve everything.

The tangle of problems surrounding TRIPP truly requires resolution, not further complication, if we all want the project to be implemented. The dispute with Russian Railways began at an inopportune time. But it has already begun, and now the parties will have to somehow find a way out of it. Pashinyan claims that Armenia has all the legal grounds to annul the deal and threatens international arbitration, while the Russian side promises to ruin Armenia in this case.

Meanwhile, in Yerevan, they understand that they won’t be able to handle this area on their own, and, left without outside involvement, the Armenian railways will quickly decline. Therefore, Pashinyan is looking (or perhaps he has already found) a third country that would agree to take on this burden without irritating either Moscow or Yerevan. Of course, the most dignified way out of the situation for a sovereign and capable state would be to take control of the situation, but Armenia is not capable of that, so its railways definitely need a master.

There have never been many people willing to fight for Armenia. Perhaps only the mining industry has always been of interest to foreign investors. As for the railways, this is one of the least profitable sectors.

As Armenian expert Vahe Davtyan previously told the media, any economic calculations show that Armenia’s railway system today is an unattractive commercial asset. Armenian railways remain unprofitable. For this reason, when the issue of transferring the Armenian railway network to concessionary management was considered in 2008–2009, a number of foreign companies, including French and Indian ones, initially showed interest, but later withdrew from the tender process. As a result, Russian Railways remained the only participant. And even they had interests that were not purely commercial.

Armenia has a small population and a complex terrain. The most optimal routes for laying tracks have already been used. Building new routes in mountainous terrain will devastate the budget, take years and will never pay off.

In this regard, we remind our neighbors once again that the only route that can have an economic effect is the road through Meghri. Yerevan should focus all its attention on this project and not complicate an already difficult situation. It makes no difference to Azerbaijan who will be the owner of Armenia's railways. He needs a road to Nakhchivan, and that's all he's interested in. 

No one doubts that communications in Nakhchivan will be built, because Baku is interested in this, and, as always, it will definitely achieve its goal. However, the situation in the region requires that the issue be addressed without delay.