Azerbaijani gas for Ukraine: desires and opportunities

Azerbaijan is ready, if necessary, to supply gas to friendly Ukraine.

This was stated last week during a visit to Kyiv by the head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, Jeyhun Bayramov.

The energy ties between the two countries are nothing new. Azerbaijani SOCAR has been present on the Ukrainian market for many years and is making plans for the future, anticipating new dynamics. Azerbaijan exports its gas to 16 countries, and this is not the limit — it is ready to expand the geography of supplies and has the capabilities to do so.

What the Azerbaijani minister said in Kyiv does not mean that supplies are about to begin. This is a proposal, a signal to the Ukrainian side that it can count on Azerbaijan if needed.

In principle, the export of Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine has already stopped being a hypothetical project: the first delivery took place in 2025. Now, the main question is whether it is possible to turn pilot supplies into a steady flow and how technically and economically justified this is.

Although most foreign experts tend to believe that Azerbaijani gas for Ukraine is more about politics than economics, there is still enough economic rationale in this matter. Of course, like any economic deal, especially in the energy sector, this one also has a political component. No one denies that Baku has its own political goals, just like any oil and gas exporter. Oil and gas are a strategic asset of foreign policy, and this will remain the case for a very, very long time. By expanding the geography of supplies, Azerbaijan is strengthening its position in Europe. It is hard to disagree that it is achieving its goals, and quite successfully.  

In July 2025, SOCAR and Ukraine’s Naftogaz concluded the first deal for the supply of Azerbaijani gas. The pilot volume was delivered via the route Azerbaijan–Georgia–Turkey–Bulgaria–Romania–Ukraine.

Those experts who, after Bayramov’s statement, try to be sarcastic in the style of “are they going to build a new pipeline or something?” are poorly informed. Pilot supplies for Ukraine were carried out via the Trans?Balkan gas pipeline. This is a pipeline connecting Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey. Previously, it was used to transit Russian gas to the Balkans, and now it has been reoriented for supplies in reverse mode, i.e., in the opposite direction.

That is, there will be no need to lay a pipeline to Ukraine. The basic infrastructure exists, and the task is to increase the required capacity and build a commercially sustainable supply chain. This raises the question of Azerbaijan’s capabilities. How much gas can it supply to Ukraine, and will this meet its needs?

In 2025, Azerbaijan exported 25.2 billion cubic meters of gas, of which 12.8 billion cubic meters were sent to Europe. Supplies to the European Union are planned to be increased to 20 billion cubic meters. This refers to a specific commitment made under the Memorandum signed in July 2022 between Baku and the European Commission. This volume is almost equal to the total volume of gas consumed by Ukraine. Ukraine’s annual natural gas needs amount to about 21 billion cubic meters, and it is clear that Azerbaijan cannot redirect all supplies to it.

Few people know that Ukraine is a gas?producing country. Before the war, it almost fully met its needs through domestic production, but due to infrastructure damage, it is now forced to become an importer. The main volume of natural gas in Ukraine is produced, or rather, was produced in the Eastern region, mainly in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions. Earlier this year, Ukraine received American LNG for the first time via the terminal in Klaip?da and through Germany.

After the war, Ukraine will undoubtedly restore its capacity, but for now, any alternative supply source will be helpful. Winter is ahead, and it needs to be prepared for. If the hostilities continue, the country will face a difficult winter. However, it will be no easier for Russians either.

Ukraine could become one of the new European destinations for Azerbaijani gas. The most important thing is that Azerbaijan has a pipeline — the Southern Gas Corridor. The lack of pipeline infrastructure is the most complex problem, which cannot be solved overnight. By offering Azerbaijani gas to the Ukrainian side, the head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry made a proposal that is backed by concrete opportunities. 

Experts believe that, in addition to supplies via the Trans?Balkan corridor, Azerbaijani gas entering Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor can be transferred to Ukraine and, via Greece, along the route Azerbaijan — Turkey — Greece — Bulgaria — Romania — Ukraine via interconnectors. As for the volumes, experts estimate that the initial supply should be 1 billion cubic metres, with gradual growth as production increases and the gas transmission infrastructure is expanded by European partners.

In any case, both sides will benefit. Ukraine gains a reliable alternative source, and Azerbaijan gains another outlet to the European market.

There is another point. When the issue of Azerbaijani gas is linked to Ukraine, it inevitably comes to mind. This is inevitable.

In June 2024, Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that EU officials are holding talks on continuing gas supplies via the key Russia–Ukraine pipeline in 2025. According to sources, one of the options under discussion is for European companies to purchase gas from Azerbaijan and pump it into Russian pipelines.