Russia wants to return to the South Caucasus – and uses Armenia again

The relative silence on the diplomatic front does not mean that everything is fine between Russia and Azerbaijan. Unfortunately, it doesn't.

The media is always an indicator of problems between countries. This is happening all over the world. When tensions arise in the relations of some countries, this can be judged by the behavior of the media. Today, after a significant break, the Russian media have once again given a platform to Armenian chatter. For example, a couple of days ago, former Armenian Defense Minister Arshak Karapetyan held a press conference in Izvestia. This guy, who had been head of the Defense Ministry for only a few months and was terribly angry at Nikol Pashinyan, got a microphone in a reputable Russian publication and told the devil knows what.

They may object that Azerbaijan provides humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, so Karapetyan was invited. The answer is: these are completely different positions. Azerbaijan honestly and openly provides humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, but it does not provide the press centers of its leading publications for anti-Russian speeches. Despite all the problems in relations with Moscow.

Arshak Karapetyan is not such an important figure to give press conferences in a place like Izvestia. He served as minister for about three months and during that time almost created new big problems for Armenia, for which he was expelled from his post. The peasant wanted to play the tough guy, and it could end badly for Armenia. However, Karapetyan himself told the assembled journalists fairy tales and tried to appear macho without shoulder straps, before which Azerbaijan once "trembled". But some points in his revelations still deserve attention. He acknowledged that Russia actively helped Armenia in the occupation of Azerbaijani territories, and without it, the Armenians would not have been able to seize Azerbaijani lands. He also actually announced that Armenia would not be able to receive Russian support if it did not stand up to Azerbaijan. That is, Russia's help in exchange for provocations. The unsuccessful minister also stated that Russia recognized Karabakh as Armenia.

Former President Robert Kocharian made similar statements in his recent interviews. He also told how Moscow warmly supported Yerevan in its occupation plans and how much today's Armenia has lost from Pashinyan's policy. In turn, Pashinyan's team directly calls Kocharyan a "Russian spy," but he does not refuse. It is obvious that the purpose of the Karabakh criminal is not so much to show himself as to flaunt Moscow's merits in Armenia's "victories." 

These trends cannot be called just the fuss of the Armenian opposition. The opposition is not just fussing, it is fussing according to a clear scenario, following specific instructions. Russia wants to return to the region, and is preparing the ground for this. The Karabakh conflict was the best way to keep the region in its sphere of influence. With its completion, many tools were lost. It is unlikely that it will be possible to return the Karabakh issue to the agenda, but it is possible to make it clear to Armenia what it should do to receive treats. Yerevan played too much into its "European vector," and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not particularly conceal his thoughts, pointing out at a press conference with Mirzoyan that Armenia had used Russian weapons during the occupation of Azerbaijani territories.

Russia clearly wants to return Armenia's attention, but it does so in a strange way, effectively putting Armenia at risk. The war scenario of the early 90s is unrealistic today, but another one is possible. If revanchist forces come to power in Armenia, Azerbaijan will not wait for another outbreak of "miatsum", but will take preventive measures, no matter who is behind the revanchists.

There have always been powers behind the Armenian claims to Azerbaijani lands, and Russia first of all. It was she who, after the capture of the Azerbaijani khanates, began to settle these lands with Armenians. If the Armenians had not been given the green light to exterminate and expel the indigenous population, it would have been half the trouble. But the green light was turned on for the Armenians, and now we have a kind of mono-national entity at the western borders, which has been trying hard for three decades to become a state at our expense. With the tacit consent of Russia, the Azerbaijani people have been repeatedly subjected to genocide and deportation over the past hundred years. And in the 40s and 50s of the last century, this was done even through party and government directives. The aliens "cleared" their habitat for themselves, remaining completely unpunished. Unfortunately, the history of the First Karabakh War leaves no doubt about the validity of Karapetyan and Kocharyan's statements. Despite their far-fetched "heroic" story, in fact, Armenian "heroes" are only able to hide behind strong allies. And in the early 90s, it was (unfortunately, we emphasize once again) the Russian back. Everyone knows about the participation of the 366th regiment in the genocide committed in Khojaly, and unpleasant incidents took place before our eyes during the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh. The RMK openly supported the separatists, who, under the protection of peacekeepers, calmly dug trenches and built positions, brought shipments of weapons and manpower along the Lachin road and by detours. It all happened.

Speaking of peacekeepers. I remembered recent posts on social networks by Russian political scientist Alexander Dugin. Dugin accused Azerbaijan of ingratitude, claiming that Russia had helped him regain Karabakh. I would like to clarify: Russia did not help, but did not interfere. These are completely different things. But it did not interfere due to certain geopolitical conditions and the presence of Azerbaijan's allies, whom it certainly would not want to face on the battlefield.

Let's make one assumption. Armenians resent Moscow for not helping them hold the occupied lands. But they do not understand that this was a calculation of the state based on broader self-interests. It was a chance to introduce a military contingent to Azerbaijan for the first time since 1992, and legally, and not through aggression. The deployment of significant forces with full ammunition, as they say, under the agreement, changed the situation and did not allow Azerbaijan's allies to intervene. And Armenia wouldn't have gone anywhere anyway. Let us recall that the military support to the Armenians in the aggression of the early 90s did not follow Ter-Petrosyan's loyalty to Moscow, as Arshak Karapetyan fantasizes. In 1992, Azerbaijan was one of the first countries in the former Soviet Union to achieve the withdrawal of Russian military bases from its territory. Following this, the enraged Kremlin openly supported Armenia's military aggression, and the "victories" began. And in 2012, Azerbaijan reached a complete cessation of the foreign military presence on its territory - the Russian side failed to reach an agreement on the preservation of the Gabala radar station.

Those who said that the peacekeepers came in order not to leave are right. But we always knew that these plans would not come to fruition. Because Baku also had its own calculations. And they turned out to be much more accurate.