Russia wants to return to the South Caucasus – and uses Armenia again

From the Zurich Protocols to the peace Treaty

The "Yerevan Dialogue" is taking place in Armenia. This is some kind of international meeting with vague outlines and uncertain goals. It is being held for the second time. The first "dialogue" took place in September last year.

The main purpose of the event, I think, is to force yourself to listen. Although Nikol Pashinyan didn't say anything new this year. He uttered the same phrases that the forum guests heard a year ago. With some minor nuances. If at the first gathering in Yerevan Pashinyan spoke about the consistency of the text of the peace treaty by 80 percent and about the remaining "little things" that do not interfere with its signing, then this year he announced the document's full readiness and Azerbaijan's "unwillingness" to sign it.

All other traditional agenda items remained unchanged. Just as nothing changes in Armenia, nothing changes in the course of its leadership's thinking. The same words, the same accents. Armenian diplomatic and political thought is not developing. And in the case of Armenia, "firmness and immutability of position" is not a plus and does not indicate the strength of political will. This speaks precisely about the lack of willpower of the country's leadership, which knows perfectly well how to pull Armenia out of the swamp, but is afraid to take the right steps. Pashinyan expects that everything will sort itself out somehow, and hopes that if you pronounce "halva" for a long time and confidently, it will certainly become sweet in your mouth.

The previous "Yerevan dialogue" passed without a trace and the neighbors did not feel any sweetness in their mouths. If Pashinyan expects to assemble a support group in this way, to put together a team of representatives of diplomatic and political circles loyal to Armenia, then it is unlikely that he will be able to include the Prime Minister of Slovakia or the Hungarian Foreign Minister present at the forum in this team. These figures can in no way be considered as agents of Armenian interests. Representatives of the EU countries are present at the event only in the logic of Armenia's European aspirations, and it is very important for Yerevan itself to maintain such an image, but in a different logic - in the logic of increasing pressure from Russia. After Sergey Lavrov's visit, the gathering with the participation of high-ranking guests from Europe looks like a kind of counterweight. Judging by the Armenian media, the local officials are overjoyed that Robert Fico has come to them, and Peter Szijjarto has already visited the forum for the second time.

In principle, it is the right of every State to hold international meetings. And we do not want to detract from Armenia's right to hold "dialogues" and invite guests. But such events should not be held in a country that has nothing to say. Pashinyan has nothing to say about Armenia, its successes, projects and prospects. All he can do to occupy the guests' attention is complain about Azerbaijan.

It has long been noted that the Prime Minister of Armenia is a great visionary, and sometimes his fantasy takes him so far that he completely loses touch with reality. This is especially evident in the way he invented to escape from the need to resolve the issue of the toxicity of the Armenian constitution. The existence of claims on the territory of Azerbaijan in the basic law is the main reason why the peace treaty has not yet been signed. Everyone knows this, including the guests of the Yerevan Dialogue.

As the whole world already knows, Azerbaijan demands that Armenia amend its basic law and remove from it the reference to the declaration of independence, which proclaimed Armenia's independence by annexing the territories of our country. Pashinyan himself recognizes the problem, but cannot solve it legally, because he knows how it will turn out for him. To get out of the situation, he came up with the following: the parties sign an agreement, then it is sent to the constitutional Court for approval, and if the Constitutional Court considers the document to be contrary to the constitution, he, Pashinyan, personally initiates amendments to the basic law.

"According to the legislation of Armenia, the agreement must be signed by the Constitutional Court. If the Constitutional Court decides that the text does not comply with the Constitution, ... an unusual situation will arise. What will be Armenia's position and mine? I am initiating constitutional reforms because the peace process and the treaty should not be missed," he said.

The frivolity of these statements does not require proof. A reasonable part of Armenian society should be ashamed of their prime minister, who voices such ideas while speaking to an international audience. Azerbaijan is a serious and solid state that will not play these games - sign an agreement and then stand on the sidelines, nervously biting her nails, and wait for what the uncles sitting in the Armenian Constitutional Court will say. And then wait for years for Pashinyan, if he survives, to be able to get his zombies to vote for changes to the constitution. Baku will not waste time on such nonsense, which will definitely not have a result.

By the way, Turkiye has already played this game with Yerevan, and it is well known how it ended. It would be very appropriate to recall now what happened with the so-called Zurich Protocols, signed in 2009 between Armenia and Turkiye. The Constitutional Court of Armenia issued a verdict on the conformity of the documents with the constitution, but with its own amendments, which was a gross violation and going beyond the powers of the Constitutional Court. The Constitutional Court of Armenia considered that the protocols cannot be interpreted and applied in such a way that it would be possible to talk about a violation of the provisions of paragraph 11 of the Declaration of independence, from which the constitution is based. Paragraph 11 states that "the Republic of Armenia supports the process of international recognition of the 1915 Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire and Western Armenia." Based on this, the Constitutional Court considered it inappropriate to create a joint commission on "genocide" provided for in the protocols. In addition, the Constitutional Court designated "actual borders" rather than "interstate ones" so that at the right moment Armenia could refuse to recognize Turkiye's internationally recognized borders.

This meant that the Constitutional Court of Armenia recognized the protocols as conforming to the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia, but only in an edited form. In other words, the Armenian parliament had to ratify a document that differed in content from what the Turkish parliament would have ratified (!). It is not difficult to imagine what this could lead to, and it is not surprising that the Turkish parliament refused to ratify. After such a decision by the Armenian Constitutional Court, it became clear that the normalization process had been reset. Official Yerevan tried both ways to assure Ankara that the decision of the constitutional court does not matter and is only advisory in nature. But Turkiye understood everything perfectly, and the issue was effectively closed, although it "lived" for several more years, during which the Armenian side tried to create the appearance of a desire for normalization. In March 2018, Yerevan defiantly "denounced" the Zurich protocols, which had not worked for a single day.

There is no doubt that the same fate will befall the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yes, Nikol Pashinyan really wants to sign it, yes, the majority in parliament and even in the Constitutional Court is loyal to him now. But one cannot discount the huge mass of the opposition, which is under revanchist steam, and which has enlisted the support of Russia and is waiting in the wings. With any changes in the structures of power, the peace treaty with Azerbaijan will be annulled as contrary to the Constitution of Armenia. Anyone who breaks through to power after Pashinyan will do this, even if, as in the case of the Zurich Protocols, years pass. Because this document really contradicts the basic principle on which the Armenian statehood is built. It is impossible to recognize the territorial integrity of a neighbor if you have declared your independence by adding his lands to yourself. This is exactly what Armenia did in 1991, which is why today the Armenian statehood itself is in question, because "miatsum" has gone down in history and will not return. And if they try to resuscitate him, Armenia itself will go down in history.

Besides the revanchists, there is also the diaspora. Even Serzh Sargsyan, before signing the protocols with Ankara, went to bow to the diaspora to get its opinion. If she had said no, there would have been no signing in Zurich, but the diaspora was lenient then, because the times were different, Turkiye was different, and no one really counted on the effectiveness of the protocols. Today's Azerbaijan is a different matter.

In October last year, the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Armenia, at the request of the Government, issued an opinion according to which the Constitution of Armenia does not contain territorial claims to any country. Nikol Pashinyan started this farce on the eve of COP29. The patrons promised that they would achieve the signing of a peace treaty on the sidelines of the climate conference, and Yerevan hastened to arm itself with the funny decision of its Constitutional Court in order to be fully armed.

In Baku, they just laughed, because it was really very funny.