The End of Yerevan's European Illusions: Who will be the first to make a "friend call"?

Recently, an excerpt from the memoirs of Serzh Sargsyan's colleague Samvel Farmanyan was published in Armenian public media. He told how, during the Pashinyan coup of 2018, he sat with Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan and pondered whether the situation could be brought under control. And Karen Karapetyan said: "Everything is under control. There are no problems. I will talk to Putin soon and it will all be over."

It would seem that three short sentences. But they are the whole essence of Armenia as a state. Before Nikol Pashinyan came to power, everything was solved in Yerevan - by phone calls to Moscow or from Moscow. But that doesn't mean that anything has changed much since the April coup. Only the code of the country from which the instructions came has changed, but Armenia has not become an independent, sovereign state.

The biggest problem of Armenia as a state is that it is constantly in search of patrons and guardians. And this is done very openly, to the point of indecency. They don't even think about not perching under someone's armpit. When one guardian fails to meet expectations, the search for a new one begins. And so the country goes in a circle, from one "daddy" to another. Pashinyan really wanted to replace Russia with the West, and he almost succeeded, but Donald Trump appeared, and the geopolitical game was played anew. It is possible that soon Pashinyan, like his predecessors, will also "call Putin."

So far, the Armenian opposition is "calling Putin." The cunning Robert Kocharian sensed the geopolitical changes and became more active. He often travels to Russia, where he meets with high-ranking officials and prepares a place for himself under the Yerevan sun, which he intends to occupy after Moscow removes Pashinyan. A few months ago, this would have been impossible, but now the conditions have developed when Moscow can regain its position in Armenia, and many are confident that, despite Nikol Pashinyan's trip to the May 9 parade, the returning owners will oust him.

The current government also understands this. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Pashinyan and his team to balance, as powerful Western support has sharply weakened, which was expected in the logic of new geopolitical trends. Counting on this support, Pashinyan has soured relations with Russia, and this makes his situation very difficult now that he is practically alone with her.

At a meeting of EU ambassadors to Eastern Europe and Central Asia in Yerevan, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated that Armenia has made an irrevocable and irreversible choice towards the European Union..These statements of the Armenian minister are very amusingly superimposed on his own words, uttered at a press conference with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Yerevan.

Mirzoyan was asked whether Armenia's simultaneous membership in the EU and the EAEU is possible. This dangerous question was asked in the presence of Lavrov, which complicated the matter. But Mirzoyan found, as he probably thinks, a cunning way out and stated that "the Republic of Armenia has not applied to join the European Union, negotiations are not underway in this direction, and, accordingly, the issue that could arise in this direction is not relevant."

It is clear that the Armenian minister is very inexperienced and not seasoned in diplomatic battles. He has no talent for it at all. Nevertheless, he is the head of diplomacy of a kind of sovereign state, and these words of his were noticed and ridiculed as evidence of fear of Moscow. Indeed, the day before, he had been gushing in front of the EU ambassadors, describing the irrevocability of Armenia's European choice, and his statements had also spread through the media and social networks. It would be more correct to repeat your position rather than get out of it. Mirzoyan's argument is not a subtle diplomatic move. This is not a move, but an attempted move, and an unsuccessful one at that.

If Ararat Mirzorian had plucked up the courage and defended Yerevan's "European choice", it would probably have raised Armenia's price in the eyes of European partners. Yerevan should not deceive itself with the hope that it is eagerly awaited in the EU. The European Union does not need another freeloader. Armenia will not be able to give anything to the EU, but expects to become its favorite. On what basis? This country sells itself based on preferences and wide-open doors, and the means of paying for European leniency is a significant break with Russia. More precisely, it is ostentatious, because Armenia's break with Russia is impossible.

As Lavrov's visit showed, Armenia will not be able to maintain a balance. And she was told about it more than once in Moscow. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov previously commented that becoming a member of the European Union is Armenia's sovereign right. However, it is unlikely that the country will be able to combine this status with participation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). After all, these are two different customs spaces with different standards, Peskov said. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk also believes that joining the European Union cannot be simultaneous with the country's membership in the EAEU. Peskov also advised the Armenian side to first study the position of the European Union itself on the issue of its accession. Indeed, where did the Armenians get the idea that they were eagerly awaited in the EU?

These are all basic things that cannot be misunderstood in Yerevan. Does Pashinyan's team believe that either the EU or the EAEU will amend their charters and rules for the sake of Armenia? Knowing the conceit of our neighbors, such a possibility should not be ruled out. Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan said earlier that Yerevan is not going to leave the EAEU. And this is most likely true. Then why was the farce of the law on joining the European Union necessary? It's simple - Yerevan wanted to show Russia its independence, and Europe its loyalty and willingness to do anything. But the EU took this willingness calmly. Because Armenia is not needed there, and she herself is unlikely to risk applying. So in a sense, Mirzoyan was telling the truth: Armenia has not applied and will not apply. Especially in the current realities. After all, a lot has changed today

When Armenia's entry into the "European family" was being conceived, there was still no Trump, who shuffled all the cards, which deprived the prospect of EU membership of its former attractiveness. Nikol Pashinyan, by inertia, still talks at meetings with European officials about readiness for European embraces, the Foreign Minister declares the irreversibility of the European choice. But that's what's on the surface. The most important thing is that a new division of the world has begun, and Armenia, of course, has found itself in the part of it that will return to Moscow's control. Brussels has already realized that Yerevan's attempts to sit on two chairs will create problems. And Armenia is not a prey worth fighting for, and it is left to deal with its former masters on its own, not wanting to get into trouble because of it. Europe has had enough problems because of the war in Ukraine. Therefore, the EU behaves rather sluggishly towards Armenia, only occasionally responding with a semblance of a smile to its fiery glances.

Looking through the Armenian media, we see that the talks about the EU observation mission and the withdrawal of the Russian base from Gyumri are subsiding, and European officials have stopped landing in Zvartnots as often as before. But Lavrov arrived. What for? To take a proper look at the "possessions". For Azerbaijan, geopolitical changes are not particularly sensitive, because it is an independent player. But Armenia will have to part with the mirages. The only question is who will be the first to make a "call to a friend" - Pashinyan or Kocharyan.

So, three "Russian houses" will open in Armenia at once, and Russia, according to Lavrov, is ready to do everything possible to ensure the protection, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia.

All. The curtain closes.