TODAY.AZ / Analytics

Armenia set to muffle inevitable failure

03 April 2010 [14:00] - TODAY.AZ
Three years ago, I spoke with a Western military expert. My interlocutor was a well-informed alliance officer. He long complained of "militarism.” In general, our conversation focused on the tediousness of the international community, which is supposed to be totally and completely objective in mediation or suggestions for resolution.

After all, we all know that one of a journalist's main qualities is childlike curiosity. So, with the innocent eyes of a child, I asked the expert: "In the event that war resumes, who will win?" The answer was a surprise. My interlocutor argued that Azerbaijan has tens of thousands of highly trained storm troopers who can reach the unoccupied Agdam and Fuzuli districts bordering Armenia in two weeks. This is no regular army, but rather trained storm troopers.

I rechecked my interlocutor’s information with official institutions. They declined to answer. But both independent and opposition experts confirmed his remarks.

I am not going to list all Azerbaijan's weapons. But last year's parade on Azadlig Square did not show everything the Azerbaijani army has because the parade was meant for Azerbaijan, not for Armenia. But I recently understood Armenia's hysteria about the "bellicose statements by Azerbaijan” since the threat is real and tangible, so to speak.

I recently wrote about the fact that Armenians are actively digging trenches in Karabakh. My Armenian counterpart saw this new line of protection with his own eyes. He said the Armenians are preparing to repel an attack and I explained this by the fact that Armenians are preparing to de-occupy Azerbaijani territories.

Recently, the Armenia-based Hraparak newspaper reported that people in Nagorno-Karabakh are actively preparing for war. According to the paper, all young adult men have already passed a medical examination. They are cleaning hospital basements, bringing beds, first aid and medicine into these facilities, and storing water and food.

Let’s compare the facts and the forecasts.

According to some, who share the opinion of forthcoming de-occupation, the Armenian leadership threatens everyone with war so that the people will feel at ease in the event that the occupied lands are returned to Azerbaijan.

More sophisticated professionals and quasi-experts believe that in declaring a "patriotic war,” which will involve not only the regular army, but also the population, Armenia will muffle inevitable failure in the event of a resumption of active hostilities to show that it was not Armenia, or the military junta, that lost, but rather the nation.

Experts analyzing the "preparation for war” scenario seem to have completed their assumptions and restricted forecasts. But I would venture to go further.

First, Armenians actually have something and someone to fear. The "aggressive rhetoric" of Azerbaijan is not just empty words.

Second, at this very moment, we have reached the point where the Armenians stand at a crossroads – either peace or war. We will decide this later this year. Time is limited.

Third, knowing all this, Armenian generals can resort to provocation. We always consider the option of a possible attack by our troops on the occupiers, but hardly anyone is considering the option of an attack from the other side. It is possible and real. We cannot exclude that the Armenians will use provocation. Of course, for them military success is not guaranteed, but talks will fail. The junta, with President Sargsyan or without him, may choose this path.

Let them experiment. The same alliance officer claimed that a week later, that is, three weeks after such an attack, our troops would be in Yerevan.

K. Guluzade
Day.Az writer

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