Russian expert says when Karabakh conflict resolution can see progress

In your opinion, what we will the fate of the Armenia-Turkey and U.S.-Turkey relations following the recent Washington talks?

The American side was very active in these talks because Sargsyan-Erdogan meeting was held on the initiative of Americans. American diplomacy interferes with problems in the South Caucasus, because it tries to solve its own problems, I dare say, a little later.

Currently, the United States wants the Armenian-Turkish protocols to be signed as soon as possible.

However, before tripping to the U.S, Erdogan reiterated the linkage between the signing process and Armenia’s withdrawal from Azerbaijan’s occupied lands. He also noted that the current situation is not conducive to ensuring that the protocols were signed, referring to expectations from U.S. President’s annual April 24 speech on the so-called "Armenian genocide".

The talks finally took place. But parties failed to reach agreement. They only agreed to reduce the level of talks to the level of foreign ministers. Surely, the Turkish parliament will not consider the protocols, at least, until the end of April.

Another question is how the U.S. will react to this. We already know that the resolution on so-called "Armenian genocide" was stuck at the committee level of the U.S. Congress. And despite efforts by the Armenian diaspora, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama stated the resolution will not advance further. I believe they will stay there if nothing extraordinary happens before the end of April.

In my opinion, we witness a classic situation where each of the parties involved in the process pursue their own interests.

Given the activity of Americans, one could argue that it is due to tensions surrounding Iran, a difficult situation in Central Asia and Afghanistan. The United States is interested in creating a certain controlled corridor through the South Caucasus. In this sense, the region becomes very important for them not only for its energy sources, but also for its strategic location.

In your opinion, will Barack Obama utter the word “genocide” on April 24?

I do not think so. There is a variety of substitution for this term. The Armenian language has a term such as "great massacre". You can use this term, or, in extreme cases, to say that it was a kind of ethnic cleansing.

But Armenia needs exactly “genocide”...

You know, you can feel like a lot, but you not always can achieve them. This is also the case with the Armenian side. It is important for the U.S. to maintain good relations both with Armenia and Azerbaijan in order to create a strategic corridor. Turkey in this matter is in the role of conductor of the U.S. interests. And I'm sure that for the American side it does not matter what actually happened in Turkey about a hundred years ago. It only need corridor that I spoke about above.

But in this case, the Americans must make every effort to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict…

I have no access to some special documents of the Russian side, but as far as I understand, there is some agreement between Russia and the U.S. It seems that we are witnessing a kind of division of functions. In this sense, Russia could be more active, and certainly will promote resolution to the Karabakh conflict based on updated Madrid principles. I see no other way to solve the problem, but a phased solution on which Azerbaijan insists.

Besides Russia and the U.S., Iran has also begun to get involved in resolving the Karabakh problem. Iran it is still a novice in this issue, and it is unlikely to achieve remarkable successes. Russia has good relations with Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. So, the Russian-American cooperation in the region could benefit all parties to the conflict. However, America’s active intervention in the region will certainly meet Russia’s opposition. There should be limit in all affairs, but the parties do not always abide by this principle.

So, we can witness real progress in Karabakh issue soon?

It can be expected if all the parties involved in the conflict one way or another understand the limit of their capabilities. This is important, I think. Why there have been no real changes so far? Because when some process begins, some parties cannot realistically assess the limit of their capabilities. If Americans push the issue of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols without taking into account occupation of Azerbaijani lands, nothing good will come of it. Let us hope that America’s policy would be competent. It must be so under the current White House administration…


/Day.Az/