United States takes over nuclear security of South Caucasus

One of the intrigues of U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance's visit to Yerevan was the establishment of cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, announced back in the fall.

In September 2025, the Armenian media reported, with reference to the country's Foreign Ministry, that Armenia and the United States had begun negotiations to conclude the 123 Agreement, which would lay the legal foundation for the exchange of nuclear technologies, information and experience in compliance with international nonproliferation principles. The negotiations began within the framework of the memoranda of understanding between the governments of Armenia and the United States, signed in Washington on August 8. The conclusion of the 123 Agreement will allow Armenia and the United States to "exchange advanced nuclear technologies and knowledge, which will contribute to strengthening energy security and developing peaceful atom in the country, while strictly observing high standards of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons."

It should be noted that Armenia started looking for a replacement for Rosatom a couple of years after the war. Perhaps this was one of the most difficult issues in the context of the "divorce" from Moscow. Nuclear technology is a delicate thing, moreover, regulated by a mass of international documents.

The closure of the outdated and risky Metsamor NPP was demanded not only by neighboring Turkey and Azerbaijan, but also by the European Union. Despite all the sympathies for Armenia, the European Union understood that any accident at the nuclear power plant would affect not only the closest neighbors of the Armenians, but also negatively affect Europe. Therefore, back when Serzh Sargsyan was President, Yerevan was ordered to close the emergency nuclear power plant as one of the conditions of partnership with the EU. What he didn't do. It was impossible to simply decide to close the station, as it plays a primary role in supplying the country with electricity. Armenia had no opportunities to solve the problem on its own, neither technologically nor financially. The Metsamor NPP was built with funds from the Union budget using Russian (Soviet) technologies and was actually managed by the Russian side. However, as well as the energy sector of this country as a whole. Rosatom is still the main contractor dealing with the maintenance of the Armenian NPP. Nuclear fuel is also supplied to the station from Russia. In November 2022, Armenia signed a memorandum with Rosatom on the construction of a new power unit, but no steps were taken in this project, as Yerevan began to receive signals from the West.

The construction of a nuclear reactor is both financially very expensive and very difficult from the point of view of logistics. According to experts, in some countries, nuclear power plants are not being built only because there is no appropriate infrastructure to accept the equipment. Moreover, railways are often built specifically for the implementation of nuclear projects. Large-scale equipment for nuclear power plants is delivered only by rail, which has caused Armenia great problems since the beginning of the Karabakh conflict.

By embarking on the path of real normalization, Armenia has gained the opportunity to begin expanding its geopolitical and geo-economic horizons. To really cope with dependence on Russia, one desire is not enough. We need opportunities that Yerevan did not have. After the meeting in Washington on August 8, Yerevan received these opportunities. The same TRIPP, or the Zangezur Corridor, will allow Armenia to solve the logistics problem and become part of a strategic international corridor for the first time. Plus, after the opening of the border with Azerbaijan, Turkiye will also open its border to Armenians. Without resolving the issue of the road through Meghri, the Turkish side was slow to open the border. Now Armenia is gradually beginning to realize how much it needed the Zangezur Corridor, called TRIPP after August 8. First of all, he gives her freedom.

An agreement on civil nuclear cooperation with the United States was signed in Yerevan on Monday. The agreement establishes the legal basis for the export of nuclear technologies, fuels and services by American companies to Armenia and opens up the opportunity for American firms to compete for a contract to replace the Soviet-built Metsamor nuclear power plant. Armenia will receive small modular reactors from the United States, J. D. Vance said at a joint press conference with Nikol Pashinyan. According to him, Armenia will become the recipient of small modular reactors with American technologies. He clarified that the agreement provides for Yerevan to receive equipment worth up to $5 billion, and in the long term, contracts for fuel supplies and reactor maintenance worth another $4 billion will be implemented.

It should be noted that $9 billion is half of the state budget of the Republic of Armenia for 2026.

The Russian side has never offered such investments to the Armenians. Apparently, realizing that such an amount will never be refunded. Besides, Moscow did not need such generosity, since Armenia was already in its hands. Even now, it's not easy enough. By signing an agreement with the Americans alone, Yerevan will not be able to solve the problem of dependence on Armenian energy at a click. The 9 billion announced by Vance is the amount that the United States is willing to spend to help Armenia do this. Washington will have to start from scratch in Armenia. 

The Russian Foreign Ministry has already responded to what is happening. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin stated that there are no real alternatives to Russian proposals for the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Armenia. Galuzin pointed out that Russia had submitted a package of detailed proposals to the Armenian side, and Rosatom was ready to start implementing the project as soon as possible, if the Armenian side so desired. In addition, Russian and Armenian nuclear scientists, as the deputy minister said, "come from the same Soviet school and understand each other well."

However, Yerevan is determined. Negotiations on the 123 agreement in the field of atomic energy have been completed between the Armenian and American sides.

The 123 Agreement is a bilateral intergovernmental agreement required for the export of nuclear materials, technology, and equipment from the United States to other countries. It is so named under section 123 of the United States Atomic Energy Act of 1954. This section requires compliance with strict nonproliferation criteria, including a ban on the use of technology for weapons.

The agreement must pass through Congress and be approved by the President. There is no doubt that such a document with Armenia will pass the Congress without any problems. The reason is not only the activity of the lobby, but also the fact that this country does not have nuclear weapons and has no ambitions to possess them. The irresponsible statements made by individual politicians at various times do not mean that Yerevan will ever seriously consider becoming a nuclear power. Not to mention that no one will let him do that. But the agreement allows the United States to control the nuclear energy industry of the country with which they enter into partnership. Armenia undertakes not to use nuclear materials and technologies for military purposes (we "honor" the memory of the dirty bomb from the time of the Karabakh clan), enrich and recycle nuclear materials, transfer information to other parties, and so on.

The 123 Agreement with the United States has been signed by about 50 countries since 1955, including the European Union, China, India, Japan, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Korea, Turkiye, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates and others. If there are no force majeure events, Armenia will soon be among them.

The Armenian authorities have decided that the new NPP will be of a modular type, but the final choice of the model has not yet been made, the Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures of the Republic of Armenia, David Khudatyan, said in early January. According to him, Yerevan continues to study proposals from partners from Russia, the United States, China, South Korea and France. The final decision on the choice of the model will be made in 2026-2027, said Khudatyan, who believes that it is not worth rushing to make a decision, because modular reactor technologies have not yet become widespread in the world and we still need to think about it.

Yerevan was not allowed to think long. Judging by the figures announced by Vance, Armenia will receive small modular reactors from the United States.

It should be noted that the life of the Metsamor NPP, after several extensions, finally ends in 2036, after which the plant must be closed. This nuclear power plant produces 40 percent of Armenia's electricity, and its closure without replacement capacity will definitely cause an energy crisis in the country.

In May 2023, it became known that the United States was exploring the option of building small modular nuclear reactors in Armenia and other Eurasian countries. According to Maria Longa, coordinator of the US government's assistance programs in Europe and Eurasia, this is necessary to "lead to greater energy independence of countries from both Russia and China."

There is a practice in the world when the operation of a nuclear power plant can be extended after the completion of the planned period. However, according to experts, there is no technical possibility to extend the life of the Armenian NPP once again, and if Armenia is interested in continuing to use nuclear energy, it needs to build a new power unit. The average construction period of power units is 7 years from the start of construction work. Plus financial issues, preparation, and so on. And Armenia, as experts advise, should start thinking about it today, because the nuclear power plant in Metsamor has only 10 years left.

What will happen then? Then, if the station is not closed by that date, it will turn into a weapon of mass destruction.