Azerbaijan needs to gain a crushing victory over Armenia: Russian political expert

Day.Az: How real are Turkey’s chances to become OSCE Minsk Group co-chair country?

Alexander Krylov: I think it is unrealistic. Turkey is a member of the OSCE Minsk Group along with several European countries, and thus has an opportunity to influence its work. It can become co-chair only after Armenia’s agreement which is unlikely to happen. Moreover, it would require one of the co-chairs to give up its role. The U.S. possible withdrawal from the Minsk Group co-chairs was actively discussed over a year ago, but now it is obvious that these were only senseless arguments by some political scientists.

Q: Do you think Russia will facilitate Turkey’s becoming OSCE Minsk Group co-chair once there is a chance?

A: Russia will not help change the current format of the Minsk Group, as it will not facilitate the peace process. However, currently Russia highly appreciates Turkey’s policy which opposes militarization in the South Caucasus and helps stabilize the situation in the Caspian-Black Sea region. Russia strongly supports the process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey, as well as Ankara’s active mediator role in settlement of the Karabakh problem.

I think joint efforts by the Minsk Group and Turkey, which acts as an independent and active intermediary, may bring about tangible progress in resolution of the Karabakh conflict. However, it must be clearly understood that no diplomatic activity by intermediaries will replace readiness by conflicting parties to make compromise.

Q: Various media outlets report that Armenia has informally agreed to leave the occupied Azerbaijani territories ...

A: To make it possible, there is a need for mutually acceptable solution to Nagorno Karabakh or Azerbaijan will need to gain a crushing victory over Armenia in a new war. None of the options exist at the moment. Under today’s conditions such a move would be regarded in the Armenian society as a capitulation, which can not have any explanation. This would mean instant political death of a leader or leaders who will do it. I do not see those who are willing to commit such a political hara-kiri among Armenia’s current leaders.

Q: Can Russia exert pressure on Armenia to leave occupied lands?

A: I think Russia will put no pressure on Armenia. The Russian diplomacy aims not at a diplomatic capitulation of Armenia or Azerbaijan, but peaceful settlement of the Karabakh problem. It is impossible to achieve such a settlement through diplomatic and any other outside pressure on one of the conflicting sides or on all sides at the same time. Such methods are widely used by American diplomacy, but they have not helped to resolve conflicts so far.

Moreover, the peace process in the Middle East was in complete impasse precisely because American diplomacy puts pressure on both Israelis and the Palestinians. Peace accords were signed as a result, but the conflict was not resolved, Palestine was split and a new outbreak of hostilities ensued.  The end to all of these is unpredictable. I think that these diplomatic failures should be a lesson for all those involved in peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict.

Day.Az