When peace comes: what the Armenian opposition fears and what awaits it

The Armenian pro-Russian opposition froze. The talks about the possibility of initialing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia soon paralyzed the revanchists.

Against the background of the expected events, the effect caused by the last interview of the leader of the "Karabakh clan" Robert Kocharyan faded. A few days ago, after receiving regular instructions, he gave an extensive interview to a local TV channel. He spoke impressively, complacently, disparagingly about the current government and presented himself as the beloved savior of Armenia. At the same time, he promoted the idea of "Russia the Savior," which eliminated all doubts (if anyone else had any) about the source of his arrogance.

But on Monday, there was talk of the possibility of signing a document related to a future peace treaty soon, and the situation changed. The revanchist opposition does not know what to think about this. The government neither confirms nor denies anything. And the revanchists still have hope that the issue of peace will drag on for some time. The pro-Russian opposition needs this time like air. The longer the state of "neither war nor peace" drags on, the more disarray there is within the country, the more economic and social problems there are, which means more discontent. For the opposition, the worse it gets, the better. Moreover, it is easier for Kocharyan to work in such conditions, it is easier to blame the current government for the miscalculations of the former authorities and to give the people a "savior" in his person and in the person of the Russian circles patronizing him. According to him, only Russia can save Armenia from Turkiye and Azerbaijan.

Now the revanchists have smelled the smell of imminent defeat. After the beginning of a real rapprochement between Baku and Yerevan, the possibilities of revanchists will be limited. Even now, they don't have much room for maneuver, although Kocharyan is trying to create the impression that Nikol Pashinyan is a political corpse, that his rating is below the baseboard, and so on. In fact, this is far from the case. A recent opinion poll conducted by the International Institute of Republicans in Armenia showed that Kocharyan has nothing to count on. According to the degree of preferences of citizens, he is three times behind Pashinyan. He lags behind even Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. These two won 13 and 5 percent of the votes, respectively. And a self-satisfied war criminal trying to play a major politician has only 4 percent. The Armenians do not need him, they are not interested in his loud phrases, because the "Karabakh clan" was overthrown only seven years ago, not seventy, and people remember how and what happened in Armenia under this gang. The people are not even outraged by the criminal case against Serzh Sargsyan, they are not upset by the deprivation of the deputy mandate of the bloody Seyran Ohanyan.

By the way, Kocharyan also mentions the data from this opinion poll, but gives only figures that are beneficial to himself, happily informing. that the people do not trust Pashinyan, do not want a peace agreement, and generally expect it.

I remember that five years ago, the Armenian opposition criticized Pashinyan for signing the surrender without asking the people, saying that he should have put the Trilateral statement up for public discussion and only then signed it. It was incredibly stupid. Today, too, the revanchists are demanding that the government bring the peace treaty up for public discussion. And it's no less stupid and frivolous. But the opposition hopes that the people will vote against it. But in vain. In the elections in the fall of 2021, the revanchists also hoped very much for a crushing defeat of Pashinyan, but they suffered a crushing defeat themselves. And although Kocharyan claims that "in the upcoming elections, the ratio of votes of the opposition and the ruling force will be 2 to 1," he is lying. He knows perfectly well that even if the defeat in the war did not force the Armenians to vote for the revanchists, now they should not count on anything at all.

No one was as happy about the delay in signing the peace as the pro-Russian opposition. She hoped initially to overthrow Nikol Pashinyan, and then to make peace, but exclusively on Armenian terms, seasoned with territorial demands. The Kocharyan-Sargsyan gang, which has been tormenting Armenia for twenty years, hoped to come to power before peace was signed, because then it would be impossible to change anything. The West, and therefore most of the world, will not recognize another "revolution" staged by pro-Russian forces after the signing of the peace. Especially if this peace is concluded on the western platform. The termination of the agreements with Baku will automatically mean a new war, in which Russia is unlikely to help the revanchist gang. It's not the early 90s.  Everything has changed a lot. If Kocharyan is being briefed in Moscow, this does not mean that they will be ready for military support there.

If the revanchists do not succeed before the signing of peace, they will have a hard time. After the opening of communications and borders, oxygen will flow into Armenia. The Armenian society will immediately feel this by the fact that a movement will begin in a country where there are literally no creative processes and positive events. Almost from the very day of the declaration of independence, Armenia stopped living, because it coveted the lands of its neighbor. The occupation weighed down her karma and pulled her to the bottom, where she had been staying all these years.

Signing peace with Azerbaijan will open up new horizons for Armenia. What the revanchist opposition is very afraid of. She'll have to get off the stage and run away.

In the current geopolitical situation, an attempt to seize territories will no longer be perceived in the world the way the First Karabakh War was perceived. The diaspora and the lobby are also gradually leaving the political scene. The days of lobbying and undercover diasporic patronage are coming to an end. Now all the questions are brought to the open ring. Everything is in plain sight. In the time of information technology, it is impossible otherwise. Money doesn't solve anything either. Ruben Vardanyan failed the "task". Despite all its capabilities. Billionaire Samvel Karapetyan is in jail in Yerevan. Kocharyan calls the latter almost the messiah, around whom a new force is supposedly gathering. It seems that the leader of the criminal clan is retelling the scenario painted for Karapetyan, but failed.

All the scenarios collapsed, one by one, crashing into reality. The reality is that in Armenian society, by all indications, there is no order for a new war, no order for revenge and aggression against a neighbor. The opposition was unable to overthrow Pashinyan either after the war or after September 2023. Hundreds of thousands (allegedly) of Armenians who voluntarily moved from Karabakh to Armenia and got stuck there, although they hoped for further transit to Europe or the United States, in theory, could become the driving force of the revanchists. But even that didn't work out. Even this mass does not follow them in a crowd. The fraudster Zrbazan managed to get only a small part of them onto the streets.

In response to Kocharyan's bravura statements, who tried to turn Pashinyan into nothing and make his gang look like a mighty force, political analyst Suren Surenyants wrote on social networks: "The Hayastan block (headed by Kocharyan - ed.) is practically incapacitated. Samvel Karapetyan's power has not yet been born. And a "fundamental change" in the political field still awaits real actors, not contenders."

It is strange that the revanchist opposition of Armenia diligently ignores these glaring realities.

Or maybe he notices, but he tries to put on a good face in front of the owners. Because an unsuccessful show must be played out.