Kazakhstan is betting on Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan

According to foreign news agencies, Russia has banned foreign oil tankers from loading at its main Black Sea ports without permission from the FSB. Previously, the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation controlled the entry of foreign vessels into ports, but since July 21, the powers have been transferred to the Federal Security Service. As reported in accordance with the law "On martial law".

The ban was introduced temporarily, but this "temporary" will still hurt Kazakhstan's oil exports, practically reducing them to zero. Kazakhstan exports its oil through a consortium pipeline, which includes American companies among its shareholders. The ban could also deprive the global market of two percent of oil supplies.

It should be noted that the ban was a response to the new sanctions imposed by the European Union against Russia. The fact is that the shareholders of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium include Chevron and ExxonMobil, and this complicates the work of the CPC in the face of sanctions.

The new package of sanctions adopted by the EU on July 21 contains a complete ban on the import of Russian crude oil delivered by sea and refined products, according to the website of the European Commission. "This covers 90 percent of our current oil imports from Russia. Regulation is prohibited, taking into account the transitional periods allowed by the industry and global market regulation, as well as time limits for pipeline crude oil in order to ensure the phasing out of Russian oil. This will allow the EU and its partners to provide alternative supplies and minimize the impact on global oil prices," the EC said in a statement.

The pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium supplies almost 80 percent of the oil produced in Kazakhstan to European markets. Therefore, immediately after the news from Russia appeared, Astana began searching for an alternative.

Recently, Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov announced at a press conference plans to increase oil transportation volumes through the main Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) export oil pipeline to 1.7 million tons this year.

In 2024, 1.4 million tons were transported by BTC, and 800 thousand tons were transported in the first six months of 2025. In other words, the growth is already underway and is not solely related to EU sanctions. In January, the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan announced plans to transport 1.5 million tons of oil by BTC in 2025, and in February, Kurmangazy Iskaziev, Deputy Chairman of the Board of KazMunayGas, presented a new forecast of 1.7 million tons.

Kazakhstan began to think about an alternative to the CPC, not only because of the sanctions against the Russian energy industry, but also because of various problems arising on the pipeline. So, in August 2022, oil pumping through the CPC was suspended for thirty days by a decision of the Novorossiysk City Court due to "environmental damage." And this was not the first time that the CPC's work was hampered by Russian environmentalists. Then, for the first time in Kazakhstan, they seriously thought about the need for an alternative, and the issue of the inactive Baku-Supsa oil pipeline was raised. The very next day, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for diversifying the supply routes of Kazakh oil. As a priority goal, he proposed to work out optimal options for using the Trans-Caspian route and instructed KazMunayGas to work out the best option for its implementation, including the possibility of attracting investors to the Tengiz project.

In March 2023, SOCAR announced the start of transit of Kazakh oil via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. The first batch of Kazakh oil from the Tengiz field was delivered to the Sangachal terminal from the port of Aktau on the tanker "President Heydar Aliyev", the second shipment was carried out on the tanker "Shusha". The transportation of Kazakh oil via BTC is carried out within the framework of the agreement between SOCAR and KazMunayGas, which provides for the transit of 1.5 million tons of oil per year. In order to implement these plans, SOCAR has upgraded the pipeline network at the Sangachal terminal.

In March 2024, KMG and SOCAR signed an agreement on a phased increase in oil transit through Azerbaijan to 2.2 million tons per year. At the same time, the first test shipment of oil from the Kashagan field across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan took place. In November last year, the country's Energy Ministry announced that Astana was exploring the possibility of increasing the annual volume of oil supplies via the BDT pipeline to 20 million tons.

And on January 27, 2025, Kazakhstan sent the first tanker with oil from the Kashagan field to Azerbaijan for transportation via BTC.

At the end of July, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid a visit to Turkiye. At the meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prospects for increasing Kazakh oil exports through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline were discussed, among other things.

The press service of the President of Kazakhstan says that in the first half of 2025, the country has already increased oil exports through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline by 12 percent compared to the same period last year, to 785,000 tons (34,000 barrels per day).

At the same time, to increase volumes, it is necessary to modernize the Aktau port and increase the number of large tankers. Tankers can be built or bought, but there is another problem - the shallowing of the Caspian Sea and the urgency of dredging operations in the ports of both countries.

There is also a quality issue. Kazakh oil is more sulphurous, which makes it lower in quality than Azerbaijani oil. Mixing of Kazakh oil and Azeri Light in the pipe will lead to a decrease in the price of Azerbaijani oil, which is, of course, unprofitable for Azerbaijan. A separate pipe is needed. And here the question arises of the return to operation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Supsa oil pipeline with a capacity of 6 million tons per year.

Kazakhstan considers the Baku-Supsa pipeline promising for pumping its oil, Kazakh Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on the sidelines of the 17th summit of the Organization for Economic Cooperation (ECO) in Khankendi. According to him, this pipeline can become an important alternative for the supply of Kazakh oil to the Black Sea ports, provided it is economically feasible.

The Baku-Supsa oil pipeline originates in Sangachal and stretches to a tanker loading facility in the Black Sea, connecting to the Georgian Supsa terminal. The length of the pipeline is 836 kilometers. The pipeline was built to transport crude oil from the Chirag offshore field as part of the ACG (Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli) project.

The decision to build the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline was made by the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Georgia in 1996.

Amoco, SOCAR and the Government of Georgia signed a corresponding agreement, and the official opening of the pipeline took place on April 17, 1999 at the Supsa oil terminal. The new pipeline has allowed us to solve two important tasks - to eliminate Russia's monopoly on the transportation of hydrocarbons to Europe and to ensure the possibility of exporting high-quality Azerbaijani oil in its pure form, without mixing with lower-quality Russian oil. In addition, the cost of transportation via Baku-Supsa was almost five times lower than that via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline.

After the launch of the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, which was stopped for a number of reasons, Kazakhstan has another alternative for exporting its oil.

Returning to BTC, we note that the importance of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline continues to grow. In addition to transporting Azerbaijani oil to Europe, BTC today is also a transit pipeline for producing countries in the region. The availability of such an alternative makes it possible for Kazakhstan to feel confident in any situation.

BTC is safe and reliable. How reliable Azerbaijan itself is.