Yerevan accepts the inevitability of the Zangezur corridor

There has been no news about Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian for a long time. Even the citizens of the country themselves have probably forgotten about its existence. Therefore, his statement on the Zangezur corridor the day before immediately attracted everyone's attention. If the president, who has disappeared from the political field, appeared and spoke out on such a painful issue for Armenians, this, according to Armenia, is not accidental.

At a meeting with representatives of government agencies in Syunik, the President of Armenia said: "If we can open the gates of Syunik, I mean the possibilities of 43 kilometers, then you can be sure that the future will provide us with great opportunities for development. We have not made a big discovery, but we are putting the existing reality on the table and vividly presenting these opportunities, we understand how important these 43 kilometers and Syunik are. Our goal is to sign a peace agreement in the near future."

Although the President of Armenia clarified that he was talking about the "crossroads of the world" and not about the Zangezur corridor, this does not change the true meaning at all. These words require no comment and fit well with recent statements by Nikol Pashinyan's press secretary that Armenia is ready to start building a railway in the Syunik region if an agreement is reached with Azerbaijan. Nazeli Baghdasaryan noted that without coordination with Baku, this railway cannot be used even for domestic cargo transportation, let alone for international. And she assured that the construction of the specified railway will begin immediately after the agreements are reached. Pashinyan's press secretary told reporters that preparatory work is already underway, for example, a new road is being built for the village of Nrnadzor (Nyvedi - ed.). Currently, automobile communication with the village is carried out on the territory of the former railway track.

The Armenian media reported on the construction of the road to Nrnadzor back in May. Although no hints were made about the former railway through Meghri, it became clear even then that some kind of movement had begun in the space of the future Zangezur corridor. The Armenian side explains the need to build a new Shvanidzor-Nrnadzor railway by saying that the current one, the one that runs along the route of the dismantled railway, is in poor condition. However, in this case, the road could simply be repaired. If millions of dollars are allocated to build a new road in difficult terrain from scratch, when constant blasting and construction of artificial structures are required, then the space of the former railway track should be freed up. And according to Armenian media reports, this will happen before the end of this year.

It is impossible to build the Zangezur corridor along the new route. The route that was chosen in Soviet times is optimal. Armenia has a difficult terrain, and rail transportation on its territory is associated with problems. Especially when it comes to international cargo transportation. The Zangezur corridor is planned as part of the Middle Corridor, and the fulfillment of the tasks assigned to it from the point of view of logistics requires comfortable and reliable transit.

Thus, it is possible that work on the Zangezur corridor project will begin in Armenia next year. No matter what Prime Minister Pashinyan calls this road. Yerevan has finally realized that Azerbaijan will not make concessions on this issue. There will be no simultaneous opening of all communications. The starting point should be the road through Zangezur, and only then Baku will open other roads that were closed in the early 90s due to the Armenian aggression. Yerevan tried to set conditions and equalize positions, but it didn't work out. Pashinyan also found no support against Baku abroad. There was no pressure on Azerbaijan. On the contrary, at the end of June, news spread about the US desire to take over the future corridor for as long as 99 years, which can be regarded as pressure on Yerevan. First, the new U.S. ambassador to Turkey said this, then a little-known Spanish newspaper reported, which revealed incredible details of the "deal" that horrified the Armenian expert community. It was reported that the forces of a private American military company will be deployed to control the corridor in Syunik, and only 30 percent of the income will be received from the operation of the corridor to the Armenian side.

It is impossible to say how much everything that was said and written on the "Trump Bridge" corresponds to reality. There were no specific official denials from Yerevan. Pashinyan's press secretary Nazeli Baghdasaryan stated that "Armenia has not discussed and is not discussing the transfer of control over its sovereign territory to any third party." But in this case, we are not talking about control over the territory. It's about managing a transit route.

Anyway, it is reported that the Armenian side refused Trump. But the refusal was not at all due to threats to sovereignty. Armenia has never had any problems with transferring its sovereignty to other actors. She would even be happy to hand it over to the Americans in order to get rid of the Russian military presence. Armenia is not able to get rid of it on its own. The European Union will not be able to achieve this either, and Trump, as supporters of "Americanization" believe, will be able to negotiate with Putin. There is a certain logic to this. The south of Armenia has always been controlled by Russian military forces. According to the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020, they were supposed to ensure the security of the Zangezur corridor. But a lot has changed in five years.

According to the Armenian media, Yerevan agreed to the United States, but on the condition that the United States would take the same measures on the territory of Nakhchivan, through which Armenia plans to transport its own goods after the opening of the Zangezur corridor. Of course, Azerbaijan refused.

Recently, in an interview with Berliner Zeitung, Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan, Head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Presidential Administration, commented on rumors about US participation in the Zangezur corridor project, noting that this is a question for the Armenian side: "Whatever is being discussed, we do not know. If they cooperate with American companies, that's their business."

"We're doing our homework. We are expanding transport links and contacts with all our neighbors - Georgia, Iran and Russia. In general, such connections will be useful for the entire region. If Armenia is ready for this, we will be happy to jointly develop the Trans-Caucasus Transport Corridor," Hajiyev said.

Apparently, the issue of security control remains the main issue in the issue of the Zangezur corridor today. The topic of customs procedures has receded into the background, if not closed at all. Back at the beginning of the year, Armenian officials sent signals of a softening of the position. They realized the hopelessness of the situation and began to think about making concessions on this issue. It should be recalled that the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Alen Simonyan, announced that Armenia is ready to ensure the unhindered passage of sealed goods through Zangezur without stops. This was a significant progress for Yerevan. Shortly after Simonyan, Nikol Pashinyan himself announced that "Armenia is ready to further simplify the operation of the railway with Azerbaijan." However, as a counterweight to save his face, Pashinyan proposed the use of the Nakhchivan railway by Armenia on the same terms. But these are all details.

The main thing is the safety of our cargo and passengers on Armenian territory. Armenia will not be able to provide it on its own. Therefore, she still has to make some choice. Azerbaijan, by and large, does not care who it decides to appoint as the guarantor of the security of the future corridor. The main thing is to have a result.

Armenia has a chance to become part of the Trans-Caucasian Transport Corridor, which will stretch from the shores of the Caspian Sea to the borders of Turkiye and will join the grandiose Middle Corridor. It will be seen whether Yerevan is able to realize these scales.