Azer Amiraslanov: "Azerbaijan will not be at risk of economic crisis in the next five years and IMF never stated that in its report"

The IMF projections of the gradual decline in the GDP growth rates in Azerbaijan are not new and are natural, said Azer Amiraslanov, president of the Fund of Economic Reforms and deputy chairman of the parliamentary commission on economic policy, commenting on the IMF forecast on economic downturn by 2013.

It should be reminded that according to the IMF forecasts, Azerbaijan's economic growth rates will fall down to 1.6% in 2011 and GDP is predicted to fall by 1.7 and 2.6% in 2012 and 2013.

Amiraslanov noted that before IMF such forecasts were also prepared by the Azerbaijani government and included into the 2008 budget package. WB representative drew up a similar forecast, based on this information.

He said Azerbaijan is not at risk of economic crisis and IMF never said it in its report. According to the deputy, the IMF report has been misinterpreted.

"On the whole, it is impossible to predict the economic crisis, as it was in case of Argentine, Russia, Turkey and other countries", said he,

The deputy noted that in line with practice, economic crisis occurs is a consequence of a financial crisis, but Azerbaijan is not at risk of financial crisis in 2012 and 2013. He noted that strengthening of Azerbaijan's financial groups is expected for these years.

According to Amiraslanov, economic downturn can not occur only in connection with a separate indicator, in this case, slow down of the growth rates. He considers that crisis occurs in the result of most negative factors. If there are no factors, causing crisis, any crisis is out of the question.

Slow down in the GDP growth rates is natural, according to the economist, as no rise in oil priduction is further expected.

Comparing definite figures, Amiraslanov noted:

"If in 2006 per capita GDP made $2,469 at 34.5% rise, in 2013 for which IMF forecasts 2.6% fall, per capital GDP will make $12,915. As is known, per capita GDP is among the indicators of living conditions and economic growth rates", said he.

He said that according to IMF forecasts, per capita GRP in the non-oil sector will make $$7,500 in 2013. The Deputy noted that Armenia's per capita GDP may reach $6,400 only in 2015.

"Figures show that economic growth will continue by slow paces in the perspective period and critical indicators will preserve their dynamics. Azerbaijan will be the most developed country in the region in 2008-2013", said Amiraslanov.

/Day.Az/