Ukraine’s deep strike raises concerns for future of high-tech warfare

By Qabil Ashirov

Building on each success, Ukrainian intelligence services are gradually upping the ante in the field. Obviously, the Russo-Ukrainian War will not go down in history only as the most devastating war in Europe since WWII, but also as a war marked by pinpoint operations orchestrated by the Ukrainian intelligence services.

At the outbreak of the war, the Ukrainian intelligence service remained in the minds of many for the assassinations of commanders or collaborators behind the enemy front lines. Raising the stakes, they blew up the Crimean Bridge with a precise operation that stunned everyone. However, the operation dubbed “Spider Web,” conducted on June 1, outshone all of them.

Thus, in a single day, on June 1, Ukraine managed to destroy about 40 aircraft, including heavy bombers and an AWACS, stationed at bases tucked deep inside Russia. By one estimate, the operation cost Russia $7 billion and impaired 34 percent of its long-range missile capabilities.

Given that the operation was launched just a day before the second round of Istanbul cease-fire negotiations, the timing was clear: the Zelensky government wanted to send a message to Russia and the world. However, the objective of the operation, i.e., the destroyed aircraft, left many in confusion: “Why was Ukraine bothered to destroy heavy bombers so far away from the front line?”

The Ukrainian side tried to shed light on the issue by saying that Russia used these heavy bomber to strike Ukraine but this comment was not enough to convince everyone.

Some believe that by destroying one-third of the heavy bombers in a single operation, the Ukrainian side aimed to force Russia into a cease-fire. If Ukraine manages to conduct several similar attacks, at the end of the day, Russia could be left empty-handed against its main rivals, the USA and China. In addition, it should not be forgotten that Russia likes to boast about its nuclear arsenal, and the “Spider Web” operation was a severe blow to its nuclear carriers.

For clarifying the issue, Azernews addressed questions to military expert Ramil Mammadli. The pundit emphasized that this operation is a very significant one and will hold a special place in the history of the Ukraine war. However, as person who closely follows developments in the Ukrainian war and is familiar with Ukraine’s military-technical capabilities he doubts that Ukraine could not have prepared and successfully completed this operation on its own in such a short time.

“Naturally, the involvement of NATO-member European countries—especially Germany, the United Kingdom, and France—as well as the United States, has been key, particularly through the intelligence groups operating inside Russian territory. One could say they acted in coordination. In fact, I would argue that some aspects of the operation were directly carried out by the aforementioned countries. Of course, everything has been officially attributed to Ukraine,” the expert noted.

Ramil Mammadli opined that these series of attacks will undoubtedly change the course and fate of the war. He believes that the scale of ground operations will grow. As for the thoughts that the attack will weaken Russia’s military capacity against its main rivals, he noted that it cannot be stated definitively.

“Framing this event as a weakening of Russia’s power in the face of NATO is not a particularly accurate analysis. The loss of aircraft at these airfields will not be enough to diminish Russia’s power against its rivals. These are no longer the 1960s or 70s when strategic bombers symbolized national power. Now, missiles, space-based systems, and advanced technologies are what truly matter,” Ramil Mammadli concluded.