Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian assets sparks global nuclear concerns

At least 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged across four airfields in one of the most devastating Ukrainian drone strikes since the war began. The targeted aircraft included strategic assets such as the A-50 early warning aircraft — Russia’s equivalent of the AWACS — and long-range Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 bombers. This operation, deep behind enemy lines, marks a significant escalation and could reshape the strategic landscape of the conflict.

What does this mean for the future of the war? Could this act redefine the rules of modern warfare? And perhaps most critically: how might Russia respond?

To explore these questions, expert perspectives from Kyiv, Moscow, and Ankara have been brought together at Azernews:

Ukrainian military expert Vadim Tryukhan emphasized the multilayered impact of the strike:

“First. The key result of yesterday's special operation is political. Ukraine has effectively responded to the unfounded statements of Mr. Trump and some of his associates that it has no so-called cards, that it is losing the war, and that it has no chance of defeating Russia. Ukraine has jokers. Not just cards, but jokers. Ukraine has the weapons savvy and the specialists to inflict serious damage on Russia. The second result. It is naval. These aircraft were used to launch massive missile strikes on Ukrainian territory. Now, Russia's ability to launch such strikes has decreased by at least 35 percent. Moreover, a huge number of missiles were also destroyed there. That is, Russia will apparently need some time to produce them. And those aircraft that were destroyed cannot be replaced at all. They no longer have the ability to produce such aircraft. The third result is geopolitical. In fact, the strategic balance between Russia, as a nuclear state, and the United States of America has been disrupted. After all, these missile carriers, these planes, they were designed and manufactured to deliver nuclear warheads, to launch missiles with nuclear warheads for thousands of thousands of kilometers. Therefore, in fact, Ukraine has now played into the hands of the United States of America and other Western countries.”

The fourth effect. Economic. Yesterday, the stock exchanges where shares of Russian companies are traded collapsed. And the last one — moral, moral and ethical. In fact, Russia humiliated, disgraced Putin personally and terrorist Russia. So it seems to me that yesterday's special operation and drones, together with these long-range vehicles, have become a real game changer...”

According to Tryukhan, Ukraine’s strategy is evolving toward full-scale demilitarization of Russian capabilities, including its energy infrastructure, and while Russian retaliation is expected, Ukraine remains resolute:

"What kind of blow Ukraine will strike next, you and I do not know. It is clear that it will be something different, but it seems to me that this is only the beginning. And then Russia will hit the Russian energy and other infrastructure more and more painfully—Ukraine will hit the Russian energy and other infrastructure more and more painfully—so that Russia will have fewer opportunities to fight not only with Ukraine, but with any other state. In fact, Ukraine has begun to demilitarize Russia. It has been doing this for more than three years. As we know, the Black Sea Fleet actually ceased to exist after the cruiser Moskva and other ships were sunk. Now we are demilitarizing the airspace. I think that there will be other tasks in the future. One last thing. Russia, of course, will try to take revenge, but in fact it will not come up with anything new. Ukraine has already suffered hundreds of thousands of attacks by any weapons except nuclear weapons, which Russia has, including chemical weapons. That is why we expect that there will be attempts at massive, combined missile and drone strikes, but our armed forces, other units of the defense forces are preparing for this. There is no easy way out. We need to defend our country, our people, and drive the Russian occupiers, terrorists, out of our land. That's what we're doing."

Moscow-based analyst Andrew Korybko took a more geopolitical and strategic lens, suggesting the implications hinge on upcoming diplomacy and retaliatory choices:

“A lot will depend on the outcome of the latest talks in Istanbul; whether Russia significantly retaliates against Ukraine (such as using the Oreshniks again); and the US’s response if that happens. If Russia doesn't significantly retaliate, then its ground campaign will continue until Ukraine concedes to more of its ceasefire demands, while the drone and aerial war by both sides will also continue. If it does significantly retaliate, however, then this will either coerce Ukraine into the aforesaid concessions or possibly provoke the US into “escalating to de-escalate” on the same or better terms for Ukraine. While the US might grow fatigued with the conflict and just walk away, Trump’s recent rhetoric on social media suggests that he might either stay the course or double down in that scenario.

The so-called “rules of war” are always changing, regardless of whatever politicians and their media surrogates on any side might claim. This is the objective reality for better or for worse. As regards this case, Ukraine did indeed surprise Russia, and the operation that it pulled off, which Russia considers to be a terrorist act, will change how other countries defend their military assets. That’s because drones have now proven themselves to be the “great equalizer” in the sense that very low-cost tech can inflict heavy costs on expensive military assets. Anyone can now employ them. This greatly expands the threat spectrum for all countries but will also correspondingly inspire creative solutions that’ll also eventually proliferate for restoring a degree of balance, too. Russia has reportedly used a wide array of assets against Ukraine over the last 1,200 days or so that the conflict has been raging. Ukraine wanted not only to take them out, but to achieve political goals. The timing coincided with the second round of newly resumed bilateral talks after a three-year hiatus and was thus likely intended to coerce Russia into accepting an unconditional ceasefire. There’s also a soft power aspect too with regard to emphasizing the narrative that this is a “David vs Goliath” conflict, which Ukraine has claimed since the get-go to generate popular support in the West.”

Turkish military and security expert Abdullah A?ar highlighted an even more alarming dimension — the nuclear implications of Ukraine’s attack:

The devastating operation Ukraine carried out against five strategic Russian bases deep inside Russia may have been organized with the aim of hitting Russia's key war vehicles, forcing the Russians to a ceasefire and make peace, and revealing and exploiting weaknesses in the air defense and intelligence infrastructure.

However, there is another very serious aspect to the matter. It is definitely not only about damaging Russia's operational power and prestige values...

This issue corresponds to:

• The possible deterioration in the global nuclear terror balance,
• The Russians' nuclear doctrine being under pressure,
• And the shaping of the Russian nuclear attack environment.

In the Ukrainian attacks, it seems that not only the four air bases—where the Russians deployed nuclear-capable Tu-95, Tu-22M3, and the early warning-alert-command aircraft A-50s, which are involved in nuclear issues with their strategic offensive/defense capabilities—were hit, but also the main base of the Russian Northern Sea Fleet in the Murmansk region, Severomorsk, where their nuclear submarines were also deployed. And this developing situation corresponds to a very serious uncertainty/crisis on a global scale.

Because these nuclear engagement attacks correspond to the physical and prestige pressure of at least two of the Russians' nuclear triad concepts, and even the disruption of their nuclear fiction.

We do not know how much damage the Russians have suffered (within the scope of their nuclear capabilities) or how they will perceive these attacks. But now there is a huge question:

What will the Russians do in the face of such an attack system that targets:

• The disruption of the global nuclear terror balance against the Russians,
• The temporal mathematics of the global terror balance,
• Global geopolitical power, deterrence, and prestige?

The Russians' nuclear doctrine foresees a nuclear response in the event that a critical government or military infrastructure is attacked, the functioning of nuclear forces is disrupted, or the retaliation capability is threatened.”