Armenia is in difficult geopolitical situation: Russian expert

Day.Az: How do you assess negotiations on resolution of the Karabakh conflict?

Aleksey Makarkin: Such conflicts are not solved quickly. In this case, the positions of the parties are directly opposite and the situation is very similar to the conflict in Northern Cyprus. This conflict has lasted for decades. There is unrecognized republic and a country patronizing this republic.

Referring to the Karabakh conflict, I should note that as a student in 199s I read books on the history of the conflict from both sides and remember that they differed for completely opposite interpretations and incompatibility of positions.

In the case of Northern Cyprus, both sides have a common goal - the desire to join the EU, but they can not agree with this regard. But in the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, there is no such status. So I think that this conflict will remain status quo. Of course, it does not suit both parties, but in this situation other options are either unrealistic or even worse.

Q: How would you describe Russia’s policy in the Caucasus?

A: It is complicated. On the one hand, Russia has cut off relations with Georgia. But the war with Georgia was perceived as fair and positively evaluated in the Russian society. The relationship can be resumed only after Saakashvili steps down. This is a politician who does not accept the entire political establishment in Russia.

With regard to Armenia, there is opinion in Russian elite that this is outpost of Russian influence in the region. Armenia is very unhappy with this because no country wants to be someone’s outpost. Therefore, Armenia began to diversify its foreign policy. So, it began to build relations with Turkey and made a demonstrative step of awarding the Order of Honor to the Georgian president which was negatively accepted by Russia. But the Armenians deliberately did it to demonstrate independence and to show Moscow that Armenia is not outpost.

Relations with Azerbaijan is stable and from time to time this stability is broken by disputes over broadcast channels and cooperation with Georgia in the gas sphere. But in general Azerbaijan is not dependent on Russia in the energy context. On the other hand, Russia in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict is trying to behave like a “honest broker”,  intermediary equidistant from both sides rather than a party involved in the conflict.

At one time Russia was discontent with Azerbaijan’s participation GUAM, but this discontent has passed, as time showed incapacity of the organization. Thus, I believe that our relations are stable. There is no conflict.

Q: What impact will Russia-Azerbaijan relations have on Baku’s participation in the EU Eastern Partnership program and Nabucco energy project in future?

A: I think that Nabucco is a greater irritant for Russia than Eastern Partnership. The point is that the Eastern Partnership besides Azerbaijan includes a variety of countries such as Belarus, Moldova, etc. Therefore, Russia does not perceive it as an imminent threat. There are just some jealousy in the implementation of such projects, but nothing more. Russia is worried about the military expansion of Europe. But now Europe does not want to grow in the military context.

Nabucco is seen as a threat to Russia’s energy interests. Previously, Russia did not react sharply to Nabucco, as it did not believe in its implementation. Now following the signing of the agreement, prospects for the project in terms of implementation have improved and therefore Russia’s attitude to the project could become more sharp which, in turn, could affect Russia's relations with Azerbaijan.

Q: Is intention of the Armenian authorities to improve relations with Turkey also demonstrative step or a strategy?

A: This is a strategy that gives show off against Russia. The normalization is possible as Armenia is in a very difficult geopolitical situation and it has to change some of its early policy approaches.

Now the normalization is unlikely, but in future it will be possible.

/Day.Az/