Abu Dhabi Meeting: Azerbaijan dictates a new architecture of peace in the South Caucasus

The meeting in the UAE between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan came as a surprise to many. The parties have not met so thoroughly for a long time. Brief exchanges of views on the move, on the sidelines of international events, were informal and indicated that Baku and Yerevan were in search of a common language. But negotiations as such, meetings where solutions are worked out, have not been held for a long time.

The last time the leaders of the two countries had a brief conversation was on the sidelines of the sixth Summit of the European Political Community, held in Tirana in May. The meeting was initiated by Nikol Pashinyan. The Armenian Prime Minister approached the President of Azerbaijan and offered to drink coffee. "Having coffee" meant "we need to talk." At that time, they laughed at the hapless prime minister in Armenia, but the grins faded from their faces when, a short time later, he launched an open offensive against the revanchist opposition and the church. "This is what a cup of coffee can lead to," some analysts commented gloomily, marveling at the boldness of the head of government, who they believed was supported by Baku and then Ankara.

On June 10, against the background of the negotiations taking place in Abu Dhabi, the Dashnaks were smashed in Armenia. Needless to say, what place does Dashnaktsutyun occupy with its bloody traditions in shaping the worldview of the Armenian society. By the way, this summer the Dashnaks celebrate the 135th anniversary of the creation of the terrorist party, which has shed a lot of blood over the years, but has not provided the Armenians "from sea to sea." The ideas of the Dashnaks and their dirty deeds determined the path of the Armenians for the next almost a century and a half and plunged the Armenian people into the abyss of conflicts and problems.

Dashnaki's anniversary will be celebrated behind bars, because the authorities are very determined. On Thursday, 7 people were detained in connection with the preparation of a terrorist act and illegal possession of weapons. According to Armenian media, Nikol Pashinyan instructed law enforcement agencies to find legal grounds to block the activities of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun party in Armenia. Yerevan is completely unable to block Dashnaktsutyun, because the main terrorist bases are located in the Diaspora. Armenian terrorism has always been funded by the Diaspora and is supported by it. But if the Dashnaks can be neutralized, at least in Armenia itself, it will already be a significant contribution to the stability of the region.

I think the meeting in Abu Dhabi took place because Nikol Pashinyan proved that it is possible to talk to him. He tried very hard. Baku is watching the steps taken by the Pashinyan government very closely. "Sanitary" procedures for laundering Armenia from revanchism and aggressive nationalism are welcome in Azerbaijan. Although the main goal is to keep Pashinyan in power, ultimately improving Armenia's political field will help establish normal relations in the region.

President Ilham Aliyev has never been a proponent of negotiations for the sake of negotiations. Meetings with a party that is not capable of independent steps are a waste of time. The Azerbaijani leader has long made it clear that Baku and Yerevan will speak without intermediaries, or will not speak at the highest level at all. Mediation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has never been neutral, impartial and equidistant. It has been monopolized by specific countries and has always tended towards Armenian interests. And when, after the 44-day war, all the same countries began to make attempts to interfere in the process, Baku firmly put an end to these attempts. It took time for Yerevan to realize that the support group was dragging Armenia to the bottom.

According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, it was confirmed in Abu Dhabi that bilateral negotiations are the most effective format for resolving all issues related to the normalization process, and on this basis, the continuation of such a result-oriented dialogue was agreed. Assessing the progress achieved in the process of border delimitation, the leaders gave instructions to the relevant state commissions to continue practical work in this direction. The parties also agreed to continue bilateral negotiations and measures to build trust between the two countries.

The meeting in the UAE was unprecedented in length, and the parties even had to take a break. It is reported that it was also unprecedented in its constructiveness. Estimates published in the media allow us to speak about the latter. The leaders of the two countries did not make any statements, but it became known that very serious and substantive discussions took place on important areas of the peace agenda. These are the delimitation of borders, the opening and development of the Zangezur corridor, and the initialing of the peace agreement. It is reported that general agreements have been reached to continue these negotiations in the format of different working groups and at higher levels.

In fact, this is the first time that the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides have met with such extensive delegations. The composition of the delegations spoke about a wide range of issues to be discussed.

The delimitation process has been unreasonably prolonged. After the successes of May last year, there was a long pause and no steps have been taken on this issue for more than a year. The return of four villages to Azerbaijan and the delimitation of about 13 kilometers of borders caused a surge in revanchist protests and the appearance on the political arena of an archbishop who declared himself the "savior" of the Armenian people. The domestic political situation has sharply escalated. Now that the "savior" is writing diaries in the detention center, and Pashinyan is step by step neutralizing the revanchist resistance, there is an opportunity for a constructive solution to this difficult task. The Armenian prime minister had to prove that he was capable of making such decisions. We can say that he passed the test at the first stage. After the meeting in Abu Dhabi, we should expect the activation of the working groups on delimitation.

There is no doubt that after the meeting in the UAE, things will go faster on the issue of a peace treaty. This fundamental document should determine the conditions of peace in the region for a long time, so Baku is taking its signing very seriously. No amount of external pressure and blackmail could force him to step back from this position. Azerbaijan has clear and well-reasoned demands on the Armenian side, and from the statements made by Pashinyan and members of his team recently, it can be seen that Baku is already being heard much better in Yerevan.

As for the Zangezur corridor, this issue also met with serious opposition in Armenia, but the revanchists did not have to make much effort here, because some of Armenia's neighbors and allies helped to prevent the construction of communications from the western borders of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Only Russia was in favor, because by the Trilateral Statement of November 10, 2020, it was designated the guarantor of the security of this transport corridor and through this could further strengthen itself in Armenia. When its position in Armenia gave way, interest in the road through Meghri faded. And in recent days, news has been circulating in the media about plans to transfer the security of the corridor to the American security campaign, and US officials have pointedly expressed hopes for the imminent signing of a peace treaty.

It is not reported in what key the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia spoke in Abu Dhabi on the topic of opening communications. You can build versions, but you probably shouldn't. Given the Azerbaijani President's ability to convince opponents, there is no doubt that Ilham Aliyev will eventually succeed in ensuring the interests and demands of the Azerbaijani side and even find a place in them for the "Crossroads of the World" promoted by Pashinyan. There are never too many roads. If Yerevan shows good will, Baku may well meet it halfway.

Turning an opponent into a partner is a political aerobatics, the techniques of which are mastered by the Azerbaijani leader.