The New Anatolian: "Iran's Azeris or the Azeris' Iran"

A couple of years ago a close friend of mine, after coming back from a long journey by car across northern Iran (or "Southern Azerbaijan," as it is referred to in Azeri literature), was telling me how Iranian Azeris were undergoing a cultural revival.

There was a real boom in nationalist publications and a growing interest in both Azerbaijan and Turkey among Iranian Azeris. A considerable part of Azeris he spoke to said that they only watched Turkish TV channels. The most popular songs playing on the streets of Tabriz were those of Turkish singers.

This cultural revival (or transformation) has seemingly attracted increasing interest from the U.S. administration that was recently reported to be willing to foment ethnic-inspired unrest in Iran. It is for this reason that the book by Brenda Shaffer, whom I happened to meet in the second half of the 1990s when she was doing her Ph.D., has captivated the attention of many influential figures in Washington. In the book, entitled "Borders and Brethren: Iran and the Challenge of Azerbaijani Identity," Shaffer, currently Harvard University's Caspian Studies director, challenges the popular assumption that a broad Iranian national identity supersedes ethnic identities and discusses the cultural reawakening among Iranian Azeris.

The revival of nationalist sentiment among ethnic groups in Iran, first and foremost among Azeris, is indeed a fact. But the question henceforth should be what this phenomenon might lead to. Could it be a catalyst for a regime change, as asserted by some circles in the U.S.? To find a reliable answer to this question we need to elaborate on the fundamental features of the Azeri community in Iran.

Until Ahmed Shah, who was replaced in 1925 by Reza Khan (Pahlavi), Iran was mainly ruled by the Turkmen/Azeri Qajar dynasty. Historical legacy thus had an important impact on the mentality of today's Iranian Azeris. Their feeling of affiliation with Iran and the Iranian state is undisputable. One would not be surprised to even see the most nationalist Iranian Azeris denounce aspirations of separation, since, in their words, "Iran is theirs." Given this backdrop, Iranian Azeris, the total number of which is estimated to be anywhere between 16 to 30 million, according to different sources, are well-integrated into Iranian society. Presently some highly influential figures in the establishment are of Azeri descent; even President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose native town is Ardebil, a mostly Azeri-populated place in the western part of the province of Western Azerbaijan in Iran, is rumored to come from an Azeri family. Azeris also constitute a considerable part of people in Tehran.

An important factor that influences bi-communal relations, on the other hand, is economics. Some among Persian nationalists question why the oil-rich south should feed the relatively poorer northern regions which are mostly populated by Iranian Azeris. Due to such a line of thinking, Persian nationalism has gradually come to contain a considerable level of anti-Azeri feeling. The Azeris, in turn, don't seem to be willing to renounce the wealth coming from the south's oil reserves.

The influence of nationalist leaders among Iranian Azeris is very limited as well. This, in fact, should be well understood by the U.S. authorities. A couple of years ago, Movement of National Revival of Southern Azerbaijan head Mahmudali Chehregani, a prominent and respected academic imprisoned for three years in the past for his outspoken opposition to the regime, was invited to Washington. With the help of Senator Sam Brownback, a Republican advocate of regime change in Iran, he held various meetings with U.S. officials. The main claim asserted by Chehregani was that his movement could spur millions of its followers into protesting on the streets. However, such public demonstrations never materialized.

No one can deny that Tabriz, the so-called capital of Southern Azerbaijan, is at present the center of the most active student democracy movement outside Tehran. Nevertheless the aspirations of Iranian Azeris are more for cultural autonomy. In fact, their ultimate goal is not at all different from the rest of the country: More reforms and more rights.

In such an atmosphere, to assume that Iranian Azeris are ready to rise up against the mullah-led regime in Tehran is not only unreliable but also risky. Nonetheless, there are clear signs that some circles in Washington are very eager to play the Azeri card up to the last moment. It is in this regard, for instance, that three years after his election Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has only just now received an official invitation to visit Washington. His meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush is set for April 28. The two main issues to be discussed between both leaders, analysts argue, will be the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Iran. There is no doubt that Aliyev's stance on the Iranian question will exercise a considerable level of influence on the U.S.' position over the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute as well as the future of Azerbaijani territory still under Armenian occupation.

We will soon see how Washington's attempts at influencing their allies' strategic calculations, as put in the U.S.' new National Security Strategy just recently, works.

/www.thenewanatolian.com/