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Harsh winter awaits Azerbaijan?

27 October 2015 [10:21] - TODAY.AZ

/By AzerNews/

By Amina Nazarli

What will be the winter like in 2015-2016? This question is being posed by many people in Azerbaijan.

If one is to believe the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast, the harshest winter of the past ten years is waiting the planet this year.

According to the administration’s research in the oceans, the scientists confirmed that “Super El Niño,” regarded as one of the most powerful since 1997–1998, will show itself again this year.

El Niño, resulting in widespread drought, flooding and other natural disasters across the globe will reach its peak this winter in the world's poles, NOAA reports.

This information caused concern among many people in the country. So, is the information real and will the world will experience the harsh winter? And will this affect Azerbaijan?

Chief Metrologist of the Ecology and Natural Resources Ministry Asif Verdiyev, however, stresses that it is too early to predict what the weather will be in winter.

“Every year we give a forecast of winter weather in the end of November. That’s why this year we also cannot give early information,” he said.

The reason for not being able to give early information, he explained, is that a Forum on South-Eastern Europe and the Caucasus countries held every November, where the sides discuss what the weather is waiting for the countries in winter. This time the forum will be held in Morocco.

“We also attend the event every year. And only then we give information about the upcoming weather. The U.S. has many forecast centers and I cannot say how they measure forecasts, but we will announce it only after the forum,” Verdiyev said.

The chief meteorologist also said that information about a cold snap this winter will mostly relate to the northern regions of the planet.

Seasonal forecasts are based on a complex analysis of long-term climate indicators and numerous meteorological observations.

“These predictions are carried out in the five centers, equipped with high-tech with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. And after processing with a variety of digital simulation models in these centers, the seasonal forecasts are analyzed in the forums organized by the WMO, and transferred to countries,” he noted.

The head of the National Center for Ecological Forecasting, Telman Zeynalov, for his part, considers that such information frightens people and believes that the forecast will not hold.

“For many years the observations show that winters in the country are not very harsh. Frost in Azerbaijan does not exceed the mark of 15-20 C below zero. That’s why we are used to frosty weather,” he said.

The ecologist also went on to predict that this year's winter will be cold but not severe. In some days, the temperature will drop to 15-17 C below zero and will last a week. Then, the temperature is expected to increase for a while, and after cold snap will return to normal.

“Frosty days will be observed in the end of the December and January. It’s also possible that early February will also experience cold temperature,” Zeynalov said.

Earlier, Zeynalov predicted early snow for Azerbaijan, adding that it is expected not only in the country’s regions but also in the capital.

URL: http://www.today.az/news/society/144672.html

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