Azerbaijan's demography needs motivation

/By AzerNews/

By Nigar Orujova

Despite a stable population growth in Azerbaijan, the World Bank’s “Golden Aging” report claimed that the demographic situation in the country needs improvement.

From the beginning of the year, the population of Azerbaijan grew by 52,300 people, reaching 9,644,300 people as of July 1. In just the first six months of this year, 78,400 children were born in the country, 53.2 percent of whom are boys and 46.8 are girls. Every thousand men in the country is accounted for 1009 women.

At present, the density of the population in Azerbaijan is 111 people per square kilometer.

Today, 22.4 percent of the population is aged 0-14, 71.6 percent aged 15-64 years, and six percent is aged 65 or older. The number of deaths (200) has decreased in the country compared with the same period last year.

These figures seem positive, however, there is the noticeable fact of increasing number of divorces by 500 cases and a decreasing rate of marriage, by 200 cases.

Azerbaijani sociologist Ali Aliyev told local press that over all these years, the country has gradually shifted to the European type of demographic behavior, with its low birth rate, a smaller number of children per family, and an increase in divorce. “So it's not a situational phenomenon, but a trend. And the reduction of population growth is our real prospect,” the expert said.

Aliyev said Azerbaijan switched to a narrowed mode of reproduction from 2013 according to the net reproduction rate. This means that a demographic time bomb was installed in Azerbaijan and its clock is ticking, he said.

"We should not close our eyes to the obvious; we have once and for all switched to a European type of mating behavior, with its high divorce rate, low mortality and fertility.

“The new demographic behavior is dictated by a radical transformation of the family institution and life priorities. It is extremely difficult or even impossible to radically correct this situation; the trend will likely change the rate, but not the direction,” the sociologist believes.

Aliyev warns that urgent measures should be taken to stimulate the birth rate before it is too late.

According to the “Golden Aging” report, Azerbaijan, located on the edge of Europe and Asia, may face problems in some 85 years.

The report covers 27 countries from Europe and Central Asia and aims to provide a better understanding of the aging process and its links to the economy.

“More often than not, the aging of a population is a source of concern, given the potential for higher health care and pension costs, increasing dependency, lower growth, unsustainable fiscal deficits, and intergenerational tensions. Demographic trends are frequently viewed as unstoppable and as an inevitable cause of increasing economic costs,” says the report.

According to the report, fertility rates in South Caucasus countries Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia are now all below replacement levels. Meanwhile, overall the Central Asian countries still have comparatively high fertility rates that exceed population replacement rates.

Experts believe Azerbaijan, despite similar ethno-cultural background to its neighbors across the Caspian, will see its population drop slightly through 2100.

The situation is dramatic – Russia will see an 18 percent decline through 2100, dropping from 143,457,000 current citizens to 117,445,000 in 85 years. Belarus and Armenia will see declines of 27 percent and 41 percent, respectively.

However, every Central Asian state will almost certainly see increasing numbers through the year 2100, the report suggests.

The study also suggests ways out of the situation with possible investments and development areas that can help reverse the trend.

Azerbaijan is now implementing a number of social projects to support its population, including a state program on poverty reduction and sustainable development.

Moreover, the Development Concept “Azerbaijan – 2020: Look into the Future” prioritizes the provision of high quality health and education services to various social groups, including low-income families and poor citizens as a strategic line.

The development of human capital includes the improvement of the social security system, provisions on gender equality and the development of family, as well as the development of youth potential and sports.

The concept expects the country’s population to increase by 1.1 percent a year on average and to reach about 10.2 million in 2020.