Kyrgyzstan hardly to waive Russian military base: expert

By Azernews

By Gunay Hasanova

The recent statement of Kyrgyzstan’s President Almazbek Atambayev regarding the closure of the Russian military base in the country became a very debatable issue among the regional experts and lead to discussions whether it is realistic to happen.

The statement of President Almazbek Atambayev that in future Russia’s military base in the Kyrgyz city of Kant must be removed doesn’t imply a change in the country’s political course and doesn’t mean that the base will actually be closed, said Andrei Grozin, head of the Central Asia and Kazakhstan Department at the Institute of CIS Countries.

“I would not attach great importance to this statement. It would be pointless to look for a cunning plan of Kremlin in this and for an attempt to reorient the foreign policy,” Grozin told Trend by phone on December 1.

During an end-of-year press conference on December 1, President Atambayev said that after the expiration of the contract on the Russian base, the base “will have to leave” the territory of Kyrgyzstan.

The Kyrgyzstan-Russia agreement on the use of the base was extended for 49 years in 2009 with the possibility of automatic prolongation for 25-year periods.

Atambayev’s statement came in the context of the fact that the U.S. transit center was removed from Kyrgyzstan, while the Russian base is left, and Kyrgyzstan should be able to defend itself on its own, said Grozin.

He recalled that the Russian Defense Ministry has been making great efforts to modernize the Kyrgyz army for several years through bilateral relations and partnership in the CSTO.

In particular, a lot of military equipment, weaponry is supplied to Kyrgyzstan free of charge, for example, the last batch of armored personnel carriers was supplied to Kyrgyzstan a few months ago, he said.

The expert attaches a significant importance to the military base in Kant due to its location.

 “There are other Russian military facilities in the region,” the expert said, adding that however, they will be insufficient for tackling hostilities in mountains if they occur.

“Syria’s experience shows that it is difficult to solve some serious issues in the mountainous and urban areas without strong air support,” he said. “It will be very difficult to solve any issues in the region, if required, without the Kant Air Base.”

Closing the Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan doesn’t seem like a realistic scenario due to heavy dependence on the cooperation of Kyrgyzstan on Russia. This action will definitely tend to create tensions between the two countries.

Kyrgyzstan accepts Russia as a large economic, military and political partner. This also plays to Russia’s own geopolitical interest in the region, because Kyrgyzstan has a unique location. It is right in the center of Central Asia and it neighbors China.

In turn, Kyrgyzstan seeks itself closer ties with Russia. The decision of Kyrgyz Parliament in 2013 on U.S. to close its military base at Manas was one of its indicators.

Kyrgyzstan annually earned $140 million from air base lease, taxes, and other payments. When the U.S. left the base, Bishkek started looking to receive similar compensation from Russia.

Consequently, Bishkek needs to fill a revenue gap after the Americans leave.

Taking all these facts into account, most of the regional experts consider that it won’t be a rational decision for Kyrgyzstan to waive Russian military base because it is in interests of neither Kyrgyzstan nor Russia since Russia considers that military base for the sake of its national security in the Central Asian region.

Moreover, Russia is helping Kyrgyzstan modernize its armed forces and provided Bishkek with a $1.2 billion military package.

Russia also operates four military installations in Kyrgyzstan. They include the Kant Air Base near Bishkek and a naval test site in the Tien Shan mountains.

In addition, Russia also provides substantial economic assistance to Kyrgyzstan by helping build its infrastructure, helping the country build hydropower stations, assisting it with gas supplies and helping develop its transportation and banking sectors.

Nevertheless, some experts consider that this is an attempt to bring the former Soviet state under the umbrella of the Russian security forces. They believe that former Soviet states should maintain their independence and be responsible for their own security.

They also justify their opinion by that Russia is not the Soviet Union in a military sense and that won’t happen soon, therefore, the closure of the military base would make huge changes for Kyrgyzstan.

Unlike this group of experts, Grozin believes that Kyrgyzstan’s army is weak and is capable of handling only local tasks within the country.

“The Kyrgyz army lacks combat aviation and is supported by Russia through the Kant Air Base,” he says.

“Russia is interested in keeping the Kant Air Base as the integrity of the structure ensuring military-technical and military-political stability in Central Asia, which has been formed during the last 10 years, will be incomplete without it,” Grozin added.

Moreover, Grozin suggests that the Russian base in Kant is an air force component of the Collective Rapid Reaction Force of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes Kyrgyzstan.

“This is why it is hard to imagine such a situation that Kyrgyzstan, being a member of the CSTO, will take some real steps to deprive the CSTO of one of the main instruments of response to possible regional conflicts,” said Grozin.

If Bishkek wants to terminate the agreements on the Kant base, it will either need to withdraw from the CSTO or to negotiate not only with Moscow but also with other members of the organization, he concluded.