Top Azerbaijani official Elnur Aslanov: 2011 to be the year of numerous problems for Armenia as it moves to default

Situation in Armenia, both political and economic, can be describe d in one word - degrading, Azerbaijani Presidential Administration Political Analysis and Information Provision Department head Elnur Aslanov said on Monday.

"This is something going beyond the stagnation in which Armenia was during the last ten years," he said. " Day-by-day deteriorating statistics of demographic and socio-economic situation in the country can also be added to it .

"According to Forbes, at present, Armenia has the world second worst economy. The country has recorded a more than 50-percent-rise in prices. The ratio of external debt to GDP will hit $3 .9 billion in 2011, or over 44 percent. Moreover, this figure is constantly increasing, because import, which is the basis of the Armenian economy , leads to an increase in debt surpassing export. As a whole, the industrial growth in Armenia does not exceed 5 percent. This indicates a total regression in the production and the catastrophic situation of the economy as a whole ."

Aslanov said that despite the country is totally dependent on external donors, both in the person of the Diaspora, and various financial aid programs, the level of real unemployment exceeds 30 percent.

"This is greatly connected with emigration because the old people increase in number in the country due to the mass outflow of Armenians," he said.

"At present, Armenia is a senescent nation on the existing standards. The demographic crisis in Armenia is also greatly associated with falling birth rates. This is associated with low living standards and deep economic problems."

"According to the Armenian National Statistical Service, the fertility rate was 1.38 in 2010, while 2.11 is required for simple reproduction ," he said.

"According to different services, the population growth in Armenia hits 13,000-14,000 people annually . Taking into account the red ink of migration, which amounted to 23,000 people in 2008, 25,000 in 2009 and 29,800 people in 2010, the demographic regression in Armenia is more than obvious."

He said the poll conducted among senior pupils within the "Strengthening the management of migration flows in Armenia" program by the Armenian branch of the Czech organization People in Need and Armenian UN Headquarters well describes t he difficulties of both economic and political character . "It showed that 70 percent of young people want to leave Armenia and settle abroad ," he said .

"In this situation, taking into account the official statistics, the Armenia n population will decrease up to 2.33 million people by 2050. But these figures refer only to official statistics, used by the official propaganda. The real figures allow making conclusion that no more than 1 million people will remain in the country by 2050, and perhaps much earlier."

Of course, the Armenian leadership can defy any figures and try to prove otherwise. But the birth rate in the Armenian families , where it is a luxury to have the second child, is a vivid example of the real regression of the Armenian state."

"Thus, 2011 will be the year of numerous problems for Armenia, because the country is moving to default, " Aslanov underscored.

"Inflation in the country is not governed. "Despite the official rhetoric, its index will be two-digital as of 2011 and much higher than 9.4 percent-inflation registered in 2010."

"One thing is clear that Armenia as a state is experiencing the most complex period when it is necessary to implement effective and constructive actions ," he added. The Armenian leadership should understand that the vital needs of the Armenian society, rather than narrow-minded interests of the ruling elite, depend on them. The fact that the Armenian leadership is doing for its own people today is a crime for which the history and future generations will condemn it."


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