Russian expert: Its possible hostilities over Karabakh will resume

Lately, Armenian media has increasingly reported about the possible resumption of military hostilities over Karabakh. Even Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan has made some remarks on this issue. Do you also predict such a scenario?

In fact, it is possible. The resumption can have various scenarios that are being discussed even by the Russian media. There are some versions of resumption of hostilities by the Armenian side which are less talked about. In the meantime, Azerbaijan’s military potential is much higher than it was ten years ago.

Let’s assume that, for example, Armenia will start fighting before in order to draw in Azerbaijan in an early military conflict. This can be done in order to provoke Baku. This option is quite possible. I find it hard to say this can be accomplished within this year. It is theoretically possible in coming years. Likewise, in some of the short-term geopolitical landscape Azerbaijan may carry out military operation to recover its territories around Nagorno-Karabakh or the entire territory. I think nobody will answer to the question "When may this happen?".

What are your expectations in terms of a fair settlement to the Karabakh conflict in the 2011?

I think the following circumstance will play a big role here - if the peace plan of cohabitation of the two communities is accepted by the reasonable part of the Armenian community, it will draw attention worldwide and will be regarded as an important and constructive proposal excluding the opportunity for militaristic solution to the Karabakh conflict. It will prevent the resumption of a war in 2011. If the plan is not received with enthusiasm, it will probably raise the stakes for military solution of the conflict by 2012. But I do not think this scenario is real. There can be provocations, local military operations, shelling, but not military conflict this year.

How do you assess efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group towards solution of the Karabakh conflict?

I think even we can not comment on this matter. It is clear that, by and large, people do not expect the Minsk Group efforts to yield results anymore. If there are any suggestions that will be regarded as serious for Yerevan, they will come from the capitals of the countries interested in the settlement, and the Minsk Group will in some way formalize them. The work of this diplomatic structure, I think, has finally reduced to zero. So, there is nothing to comment about. There is no subject for discussion.

Can Russia exert pressure on Armenia to ensure speedy settlement to the Karabakh conflict?  
 
I think, in fact, the means of pressure on Armenia have exhausted, but if we assume it is not, in any case it is up to Yerevan to decide. Neither Moscow nor Washington will strongly influence Armenia to solve this problem. Another thing is that there is willingness to play a variety of domestic political games in Armenia. Currently Armenia is on threshold of elections. But some activeness is not expected even in this respect. Observers both in Moscow and Washington still have an impression that the geopolitical cost of the conflict is low, so stakes on it are not so high. If the things were otherwise, there would be more vigorous activity.


/Day.Az/