Russian expert called starting date for new Karabakh war

During Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s recent visit to Yerevan, Armenia and Russia signed an agreement extending presence of Russian military base in Gumri.

I believe that the protocol to extend the deployment of Russian military bases in Armenia was signed primarily under the pressure of certain forces in the Russian government and the U.S. Republican Party to postpone a possible outbreak of war in Karabakh for a later date. Soon, there will be elections in the U.S. and Russia. What is noteworthy is that S-300 military complex has already been installed in Armenia and Abkhazia. Russia is seriously trying to control the sky over the South Caucasus. At the same time, warships from the Baltic Sea were transferred to the Black Sea. Again, this is done in order to delay the beginning of the war over Karabakh till the end of 2011.

I am confident that the war is still inevitable and it will happen. Just some forces want to delay its start. And what could start tomorrow will start at a later date. This is done in order to use the South Caucasus as a kind of chips for its own PR. In particular, the American Republicans need this to return to power. Iran is also interested in this as it understands that in the event of war, NATO forces will try to stay in the zone of conflict in the role of peacekeepers and all that will take place near the Iranian border.

Regarding Russia’s possible intervention into the war on Armenia’s side, this is less likely to happen.
 
So, you think a war is inevitable?

Yes, I think that war over Karabakh is inevitable. After all, even if Serzh Sargsyan puts his signature to all documents suiting Azerbaijan, it will not work. The signature will remain on paper and no more. Strong nationalist forces in Armenia and outside it will allow the government in Yerevan to make only one small step towards Baku. Keep in mind that the current president of Armenia does not control the situation in the country so that some of his decision will be realized.

It should also be noted that today unprecedented number of players are focused on the South Caucasus, which creates tremendous pressure in the region. So, here are three countries - Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia. There are three regional leaders involved in the Karabakh issue - Russia, Turkey and Iran. And there are three countries which are also involved in all processes in the South Caucasus. This is the U.S., Israel and the EU. In total, there are nine players in a small land. And each of them to some extent is dissatisfied with the prevailing circumstances here. And if the nine players – not to mention China – and Islamic countries are dissatisfied with the situation, then war is inevitable.

At the same time you say that the war would begin in 2011...

Azerbaijan can ignore play of great powers and start everything much earlier. Just now there is an attempt to force Azerbaijan to lose time. Certain forces are hoping that Azerbaijan will think and re-evaluate the situation...


/Day.Az/