Russian expert on U.S. State Secretary’s upcoming Baku visit, resolution of Karabakh conflict

How do you assess the latest high-level meeting on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement in St. Petersburg?

The fact that after a trilateral meeting in St. Petersburg was followed by a statement that positions of parties to the conflict have become closer and the dialogue continues shows that the  diplomatic game is still continuing. But the armed incident on the contact line of troops which took place immediately after the meeting of the presidents is far more significant. Efforts to strengthen one’s stance in negotiations, no matter who started it, makes intermediaries wonder whether is it worth it to rush to act as guarantors of a peace process amid such an unpredictable behavior of the parties to the conflict.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will visit Azerbaijan soon. In your opinion, what is the aim of the visit?

Probably, Clinton's visit aims to remove the tension in relations between the two countries. But for the U.S. central theme will probably be Azerbaijan’s possible participation in anti-Iran sanctions. U.S. Secretary of State, of course, will again voice support for the Madrid principles, but I do not think today America has the resources and desire to pay special attention to the Caucasian problems.

How do you assess the Military Doctrine that Azerbaijan adopted a couple of weeks ago?

Azerbaijan’s Military Doctrine, according to some estimates, is clearly a political document. I want to believe that Azerbaijan will refrain from a military solution to the conflict because both sides will incur great losses.

According to Armenian media, Russian President will submit a new plan to bring an earliest resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to the Armenian leadership during his upcoming visit Armenia…

I am less aware of diplomatic efforts of the Russian President than the Armenian media. Other members of the Minsk Group are less likely to agree with involvement of Russian peacekeepers, which they report. As for the possible appearance of American peacekeepers on the Azerbaijani-Iranian border, I think this is nothing more than rumors.

Do you predict progress in resolving Nagorno-Karabakh conflict this year?

As a whole, I am pessimistic about early resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Each side sees its own victory as an acceptable solution.


/Day.Az/