Editor-in-chief of Russia-based newspaper named timeframe Armenia will withdraw from Azerbaijan's lands

At a joint press conference with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Ankara, Turkish Primier Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he studies possibility of Turkey’s inclusion to the OSCE Minsk Group as a co-chair. In your opinion, to what degree is this realistic?

I'm not sure that Turkey will co-chair, as this issue is decided not only by Moscow, but also Paris and Washington. The Group has been created by the OSCE, and Turkey’s desire even approved by Russia is not enough. It is clear that Armenia will show impressive resistance.

The Minsk Group probably understands Turkey’s growing role in resolving conflicts in South Caucasus. In this case, it was Dmitry Medvedev who made his proposal that Turkey actively participates in solving these problems. Of course, it is a positive fact for Azerbaijan. In this case, there will be more impartial approach to solving the conflict.

It has been repeatedly said that there are official Zurich protocols, verbal, perhaps also written agreements which state that sooner or later Armenia must withdraw from occupied lands around Nagorno-Karabakh so that the ties between Turkey and Armenia will normalize. Turkey will insist on this part of written or verbal statement.

Certainly Dmitry Medvedev was referring to this when he talked about an opportunity to involve Turkey to solve the conflict. Turkey needs to take more convincing measures now so that Armenia will finally pull out troops from the occupied lands.

In your view, how will the Armenian government act in this case?

Government officials, civil servants, MPs will argue that mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group to resolve the conflict is sufficient. They will try to convince that Turkey’s involvement is senseless and unnecessary. Armenians will unofficially try to persuade co-chairs of France and the U.S. to advert Turkey’s involvement.

As to France, given Nicolas Sarkozy’s cautious attitude towards Turkey lately, Armenian will achieve its target in this case. But it will not work with the United States. Frankly, the U.S., Russia and Turkey are more active players in the theater of political action in the South Caucasus than France. Therefore, France and Armenia will be in the minority.

In your opinion, is it possible to normalize Armenia-Turkey relations without progress in the Karabakh conflict resolution?  

Turkey has clearly announced conditions that will open the border with Armenia. It implies complying with the proposals suggested by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, in other words, liberation of all occupied areas surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Once these areas are returned to their rightful owner, Turkey will open the border.

How soon we can witness progress in this issue?

This may include a period of several months to a year and a half. First, it is necessary to prepare the propaganda machine of Armenia and the Armenian Diaspora for this. For the Sargsyan government, it is a very difficult decision, which may result in serious discontent of the opposition that can be supported by the diaspora in this case.

This process will take long. Armenia will gradually be explained all advantages of opening the border with Turkey. Armenia will certainly advance some conditions even to international organizations. But it will have to withdraw from the lands sooner or later. International law supports Azerbaijan.

Given fast rapprochement between Turkey and Russia primarily in economic terms, some experts say Turkey, Azerbaijan and Russia may establish a geopolitical alliance. To what extent is such an alliance realistic?

It is realistic. But in this case Russia, of course, will be very careful in this matter because of relations with Yerevan. From an economic viewpoint, Armenia is not so attractive to Moscow, like Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia has obtained everything that it could obtain in Armenia including railways and telecommunications market. Therefore, Moscow will always strive to ensure that the Armenian regime has been loyal to Russia. We should not forget about the military base. So, Russia will participate in the aforementioned alliance very carefully not to spoil relations with a partner Armenia.


/Day.Az/