Russian expert: Azerbaijan has sufficient strength to solve the problem by military means

During his upcoming visit to Turkey, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is likely to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Turkish PM Erdogan among other issues. In your opinion, how serious can the meeting be in this context?

I am sure that the Karabakh issue will indeed be on the agenda of Medvedev-Erdogan talks while it will not be linked to the Turkish-Russian bilateral relations and painful points like Nabucco, BTC and others. But Dmitry Medvedev needs foreign-policy breakthrough as a peacemaker. So, Russia, in my view, will try to work with Erdogan so that ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols will take into account everything related to the Karabakh conflict settlement.

In your opinion, what Armenia is so much afraid of? Why it does not want to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh, though it will have positive impact on the Armenian economy and the lives of ordinary people in the country?

Let's start with the fact that Azerbaijan is becoming a structure close to the concept of a regional superpower. Azerbaijan has recovered from all the problems of 1990s. It rearms its army. Azerbaijan is becoming stronger. Today Azerbaijan has sufficient strength to solve the problem by military means. In this context, Armenia’s fear is obvious.

The Armenian diaspora overseas, especially in France, is far more intransigent on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh than the Armenian government. Armenia's economy is largely dependant on the diaspora. In this respect, it is very difficult for Serzh Sargsyan to balance desires of the diaspora and real state of affairs. After all, events that happened a century ago are very painful for the diaspora.

Can we expect progress in resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2010?

In my opinion, to a considerable extent, the key to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement is located in Ankara, rather than in Moscow, because Russia does not have such a resource to impact Armenia as Ankara. The conflict resolution may see progress if Washington and Moscow make economic arguments in favor of improving relations with neighbors clear for Armenia.

The Armenian economy is in tough situation. If Turkey opens borders with Armenia and Armenia, in turn, normalizes relations with Azerbaijan, Armenia will be much independent. Indeed, Ankara should tell it Armenia as key to solving the problem lies precisely in the capital of Turkey.

However, I believe that a "breakthrough" in the settlement process is hardly the right word. Here one should move step by step. Let's first recognize those positions for which today we have to negotiate. Let us fully recognize the responsibility for Khojaly. Let's get away from emotions. Let's talk about the problems of disengagement. One must move from political statements to concrete steps. That is possible ...

In your view, will high-level meeting on resolution of the Karabakh conflict held soon?

It should be noted that Azerbaijan has announced that it accepts the updated Madrid principles, and today further progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement depends on Armenia. In turn, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said he was willing to act as guarantor that the interests of all parties were satisfied. If such a meeting takes place, it can be a good chance to make a very important step toward resolving the conflict. Updated Madrid principles are a chance to break the deadlock.

The meeting requires goodwill of presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Though Serzh Sargsyan has announced that ratification of the Armenia-Turkey protocols are suspended, Armenia has not quit the process. So, movements are possible.

Much now depends on the vigor of Russia and personally, Dmitry Medvedev. Recently we have seen foreign breakthroughs by the Russian President. I mean the agreement on the Black Sea Fleet with Ukraine, the START treaty with the United States, finally, an agreement with Norway on delimitation of the continental shelf. It is clear that Dmitry Medvedev is becoming a number one man in Russian foreign policy. It is important to now this energy was directed to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.


/Day.Az/