Turkey's and Russia’s role in resolving Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

"Russia seeks to be the main sponsor and guarantor of resolution of the Karabakh conflict,” Azerbaijani political analyst Zardusht Alizade said commenting on Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s upcoming visit to Turkey.

The analyst believes Russia pushes policies to have an exceptional ability to influence the conflicting parties that have always been a pretext for intervention in the ongoing processes in the region.

“Russia and other countries are unlikely able to influence Azerbaijan because the country is financially independent unlike Armenia, whose economy is entirely dependent on Russia and financial assistance from the West,” the analyst explained.

“It's hard to say if Turkey will assist with this policy of Russia if Moscow offers Ankara to calm down Yerevan’s policy seeking recognition of "genocide". Though Turkey is a fraternal country for Azerbaijan, the country has its own national interests. In 1920s, Turkey assisted Russia to strengthen its foothold in the South Caucasus. Now, the interests of Ankara and Moscow come together on the Karabakh conflict.”

“Being an ally of Russia, Turkey can get a project "South Stream", defuse a fictional "Armenian genocide", restore relations with Armenia and become one of the guarantors of the process of Karabakh conflict settlement,” the analyst underscored.

According to the analyst, while parties directly involved in the conflict fail to reach an agreement, any country may well feather its nest on this matter.

Alizade says the most real option is that Armenian withdraws from five occupied regions followed by an international peacekeeping operation for the return of Azerbaijani refugees and reconstruction of damaged infrastructure in these areas.

Armenia will delay withdrawal from two more Azerbaijani regions. In exchange for this, Azerbaijan will be offered to undertake a commitment not to use force, to negotiate with Karabakh Armenians and deploy peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. Naturally, Russia will try to deploy its troops there as in case of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, says the analyst.

“Government led by Serzh Sargsyan, which holds power only at the expense of "the Karabakh card”, can accept peace only if the framework agreement notes that Nagorno Karabakh will not be a part of Azerbaijan. Otherwise, he may be asked why he overthrew Ter-Petrosyan, who did not insist on independence of Karabakh from Azerbaijan,” he said.

Alizade said, that the transitional status is intended to provide security in the self-determination process of Nagorno Karabakh. But Armenians seek to transform a transitional status to the form of Karabakh's preparation for independence and subsequent “miatsum” while Azerbaijan says, that the transitional status is a transition to a high degree of autonomy within Azerbaijan.

Interestingly, the preamble of the Madrid principles enumerates conditions: the territorial integrity and right to self and renunciation of the right use of force, says the analyst.

If positions of conflicting parties see no significant changes, the negotiations may take even more years, Alizade noted.


/Day.Az/