Azerbaijani analyst named the only peaceful way to settle Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

What are your comments on Russian Foreign Ministry official’s statement welcoming Iran’s offer to mediate in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Russia wants its role in the Karabakh conflict to remain same as this was achieved by consensus with the U.S.. Given the relations between Tehran and Moscow, Russia takes these initiatives rather calmly. But this is not the main point. The main issue is that position of the parties remains intransigent largely because Russia, the United States and especially France support Yerevan.

If Azerbaijan had not grown stronger in recent years, or if we “stagger”, I'm afraid that the attitude of mediator countries towards us will be the same as in the first half of the 1990s, when our diplomats were ignored and Russia with Armenia jointly organized an information blockade against Baku.

Maybe, Iran wants to influence the course of negotiations on Karabakh. But, another thing is whether it can do it. I think Tehran is in no position to exert pressure on the parties to the Karabakh conflict.

In your view, what is Moscow's attitude towards initiatives for Turkey to become co-chair of the Minsk Group?

Given deepening relations between Ankara and Moscow lately, it is possible that Russia will not interfere with Turkey’s entry to the OSCE Minsk Group. But I do not think that this could help the negotiation process in any way. The Minsk Group is subject to the OSCE, which, in turn, is controlled by the United States. Therefore, this state, along with Russia, will monitor the progress in the negotiation process.

What changes in the Minsk Group format can help to solve the Karabakh conflict?

The Minsk Group has played a significant role in achieving a ceasefire agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This organization was able to encourage the parties to this important decision. But later all of their initiatives met with intransigence of the parties. It must be understood that there will be no progress while the U.S. continues to support Yerevan.

No progress will be achieved even if the EU, China or any neutral country joins the OSCE Minsk Group because this organization lacks the mechanisms to make its decisions binding. All decisions will be of a recommendatory nature. Therefore, I believe that there is a need to hand settlement of the Karabakh conflict to the UN, as Security Council is the only organization whose decisions are binding. Apart from this, I do not see other possibilities of peaceful settlement to the Karabakh conflict.

Some forces in Armenia say pressure on the country has intensified after the Zurich protocols were signed. Do you share this opinion?

Of course, the pressure on Yerevan has increased. But I think there is even stronger pressure on Turkey. Therefore, one should not be deluded, but pay attention to the statement of Russian diplomat Velichko. Once, decades ago, he wrote that Armenians are very tough negotiators. They constantly prevaricate and dodge. Therefore, even if they have just signed the international treaty that does not mean that they will execute it. Armenians become amenable only when they are defeated. The example to support this statement is 1920.

In your opinion, was Yerevan’s move to suspend negotiations with Turkey a diplomatic move before the anniversary of the “Armenian Genocide”? Will Yerevan’s interests in the opening of borders with Turkey make it return to this process?

I think that the recent statement by Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian that it is early to bury the Zurich protocols is Washington's attempt to exert pressure on Ankara. But Turkey's position is quite resistant. Of course, Turkey is in a difficult situation, which would be much easier, if not the Karabakh conflict.

This factor constrains Ankara. Otherwise, Turkey could have long ago resumed diplomatic relations with Armenia and got its political dividends. Now, Armenia wants Turkey to make unilateral concessions. But this happens only in one case - when one state dealt a military defeat on the other. As far as I know, Armenia has dealt no military defeat to Turkey.


/Day.Az/