Azerbaijani expert: Armenia has led itself to edge of geopolitical abyss

What are your comments on Armenian media projections about possible social unrest in Armenia due to expected rise in gas prices?

Until recently Armenia simply did not know what is high gas prices because Russia made a discount on gas prices for its outpost in the Caucasus As a result, Armenia was paying for gas several times less than the world prices. In exchange for discount prices Armenia offered its  enterprises and entire industries some of which had strategic importance.

Armenia has already sold all that could be sold. So, possible rise in gas prices in Armenia is not surprising especially because of the global financial and economic crisis which prompted many to revise prices on import goods in a bid to level its implications for their economies. So, Armenians need to put claims not to Russia, which acts in a pragmatic way based on self-interest, but their government which did not bother to carry out a little bit of economic reforms.

Until recently, only banking sphere was developed in Armenia as it was engaged in transfer of the Armenian Diaspora funds to their relatives and friends in Armenia directing their own income to all sorts of crimes including financing of terrorism. Due to world financial and economic crisis volume of remittances of the Diaspora sharply reduced and the hut on chicken legs entitled "Armenian economy" collapsed.

The rise in gas prices for the Armenian citizens is planned on the backdrop of significant reduction in their income and stagnation in the whole Armenian economy. All these points to  absence of any sign of democracy, triumph of oligopolies, growth of social injustice and disregard for impoverished majority in support of a handful of government supporters. All these aspects give a full right to predict a social unrest in Armenia.

What impact the deadlocked Turkey-Armenia reconciliation process might have on domestic situation in Armenia?

Armenia was very much interested in normalizing ties with Armenia in an attempt to revive rapidly collapsing economy by opening the border. But there is almost no hope for normalization of the Turkey-Armenia relations in wake of a scandalous decision by the Armenian Constitutional Court which made reservations to the text of protocols contradicting letter and spirit of the accords. It also shows that there is no any hope that Armenian economy may revive.

Consequently, deepening socio-economic problems in Armenia will prompt traditional search for perpetrators. But guilty is Armenian leadership from which the population may well demand to provide explanations for the causes that drove the country to self-isolation.

In your opinion, what is the general geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus region after the Armenian-Turkish normalization reached an impasse?

Impasse in the Turkish-Armenian relations revealed Armenia's readiness to offer cooperation to the U.S., forgetting that it is an outpost of a very different superpower in the region. Russia once again made sure that Armenia is a unreliable partner. Naturally, this will entail a change in Russia's attitude to Armenia, which is fraught with growth of problems in Armenia in the presence of large number of levers of pressure on this country from Russia.

In particular, I believe Armenia will become even greater source of instability and political-economic crises in our region. This country has led itself to the edge of a geopolitical abyss.

A. Hasanov