Russian political expert: Opening of Armenia-Turkey border meets neither Azerbaijan’s nor Russia’s interests

Recent developments around the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have sparked general dissatisfaction in Azerbaijan. How would you describe them?

First and foremost, one needs to understand what is Russia’s attitude to the geopolitics of the Karabakh problem. Russia’s actions must be considered in this context. It is true that Moscow is fully satisfied with the current state of the conflict. Namely, the Armenian control over Nagorno-Karabakh is linked to the presence of Russian bases in Armenia. This is extremely important for the Kremlin, which fears to lose this strategic advantage.

In the meantime, Russia is also opposed to exclusion of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan, because it can spoil relations with Azerbaijan. So, Russia wants to maintain the legal position keeping the Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijan. Moreover, it is also a good base for improving relations with Baku.

At the same time, Moscow is perfectly aware that the Azerbaijani people will never accept separation of Nagorno-Karabakh. Such a scenario destabilizes the situation in Azerbaijan which will blame Russia for this. Therefore, the Kremlin understands that the thing best for it is to keep everything as is.

On the other hand, the U.S. is very interested in resolving the Karabakh problem, because any change in the balance of forces in the region will lead to destabilization. In the meantime, Washington does not mind to another hot spot in Russia's borders. So, Americans are stepping up efforts ostensibly to solve the problem.

Thus, Russia is interested in a deadlock, and the Americans, roughly speaking, in a bloody stalemate. Washington can launch it quickly and quietly. The States can make several statements on recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence, which, of course, will cause a strong anger in Azerbaijan. As a result, Azerbaijan will be forced to react very harshly and resumption of hostilities is not ruled out in this case. Believe me, the U.S. needs only this.

Do you mean there is a stalemate in any case? How long do you think the current situation will persist?

It will last very long. When speaking about Russia, it is worth noting that it does not clearly back Armenia and is very interested in maintaining and developing good relations with Azerbaijan, too. So, the Kremlin will block any sort of resolution to the conflict. The only thing Russia wants is to oppose U.S. policy towards this region.

Azerbaijan does not also exclude a military solution to the conflict. What will the U.S. gain and what will Russia lose once military hostilities are resumed?  

Russia’s position will be very neutral. Moscow is unlikely to support military action. Americans, by contrast, will support the war, and support both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thus, if the war starts again, Russia will lose first of all, I think.

I perfectly understand feelings, emotions and attitude of Azerbaijanis. However, the cold laws of geopolitics, in my opinion, say that if this conflict comes out the protracted impasse which is unpleasant and humiliating for all parties, it will be impossible to achieve positive results, because the war will lead to nothing positive.

Thus, today there is possibility to further improve the Azerbaijani-Russian relations, which in future could impact the resolution of the conflict. Why? Because the American initiative for opening the borders of Turkey and Armenia does not meet interests of both Azerbaijan and Russia. It turns out that the American strategy in the South Caucasus brings us together, and I think that we have not taken advantage of it adequately.

H. Hamidov