Turkey-Armenia protocols may be ratified with preconditions: U.S. political observer

Day.Az: What role does Washington play in a Turkey-Armenia dialogue? Is there pressure on Ankara?

Yuri Sigov: The U.S. policy towards normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations is quite clear - the more stable and more predictable will be the situation in the Caucasus, the simpler the U.S. will carry out its policies, especially in the energy sector, as well as against Iran.

Certainly, the United States supported Turkey in its efforts to normalize relations with Armenia, but tried to do this without jeopardizing its relations with Azerbaijan. In future, the United States will continue to do everything possible so that Armenia and Turkey fully normalize relations. However, I am not sure that this somehow helps speedy resolution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Q: What can you say about possible opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia? Do you believe the Turkish parliament will ratify the protocols?

A: More likely, Turkey-Armenia protocols will be ratified with preconditions, since there is a common vector for normalization of relations with its neighbors in the Turkish political circles. Definite preconditions may imply advancing proposals regarding return of Azerbaijani lands. Quite possibly, Turkish parliamentarians will listen the Armenian side’s  explanations about fate of Nagorno-Karabakh. In any case, this process is underway and, most likely, the border will be opened in near future.

Q: To what extend Armenian diaspora impacts Armenia-Turkey ties? What steps will the Diaspora take once the borders are opened?

A: I think the Armenian Diaspora is very influential and is able to have a considerable influence on certain political processes in many countries, including the United States. As to normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia, I still think "big politics" and its ultimate pragmatism, rather than influence of some particular groups, including the Diaspora, played the mayor role in this respect.

Q: What impact will Armenia-Turkey rapproachement have on Armenian Diaspora’s efforts to push the issue of the so-called “Armenian genocide” through the U.S. Congress?

A: One should not place a global significance on the discussions in the U.S. Congress. Even if Armenian Diaspora pushes any discussion on the issue of "genocide", the result may be a resolution or some sort of definition, having neither legislature nor any other "commander's" significance as a rule. The mere fact of discussion  on any issue in the U.S. Congress is actually important, but one should not expect any significant and far-reaching consequences.

Q: What impact will Armenia-Turkey dialogue have on resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Is Yerevan likely to make concession on the Karabakh issue?

A: Turkey-Armenia normalization will definitely bring about no specific momentums in the Karabakh issue.

The essence of the conflict at current stage is real, but not declarative desire of the very members of the Minsk Group to break the deadlock. While negotiations are held more for the sake of negotiations, those who can directly make progress in the Karabakh issue (the United States, Russia, and partly Europe) deal with far more important matters than Karabakh.

I feel this status quo, when the conflict remains almost frozen, can last for quite a long time, unless Azerbaijan makes sharp moves and makes full use its opportunities in relations with Russia.

Since Russia has its allied relations with Armenia, I do not believe that Moscow will take a sharp turn from one Transcaucasian country to another. The United States has yet to be unobtrusive to continue the negotiation process and expect all to normalize in the Caucasus by itself. America seeks to make sure that there will be no further military action in the region, oil and gas pipelines will be supplied uninterruptedly, and that its political and economic positions will strengthen there.

Day.Az