It will not be easy for Ashgabat: Head of the Heritage Foundation Moscow Office

Day.Az: What stands behind Turkmen president’s intentions to create navy on the Caspian Sea “in an effort to protect country’s national borders”?

Yevgeny Volk: It appears that the Turkmen leadership is seriously concerned about the increased military-political and economic rivalry in the Caspian region and intends to firmly defend its interests. The statement by this country's president to create a navy is a link in the chain of actions designed to confirm this determination. Another thing is that realization of this intention is the question of not today. Formation of the Navy is a complex and expensive process that will require substantial economic tension and it is unclear whether Ashgabat is ready for this.

Q: Ashgabat has claims to some fields which have long been developed by Azerbaijan and even threatens to file a suit with the international arbitration to challenge the origin of these fields. Can Turkmenistan achieve this given that international consortium primarily the United States is actively involved with implementation of these projects?

A: It will difficult for Ashgabat to realize its claims to the fields being developed by Azerbaijan. The issue is not only United States’ participation in an international consortium, but in the unwillingness of the international community to get involved in solving complex problems that have no clear legal status.

Q: Iran is not invited to the informal summit of leaders of the four other Caspian littoral states to take place on Sept. 11 to 13 in Aktau. Will the four ex-Soviet states be able to persuade Iran to final solution of the problem of dividing the Caspian Sea?

A: I do not think that a simple numerical majority of Caspian littoral states will be a strong argument to Tehran in favor of the final solution to problems related to dividing the Caspian Sea. Iran has its clear interests which do not coincide with those of other countries in the region, and it intends to give up them neither for foreign policy considerations, nor for domestic political reasons. Significant concessions in this matter may be perceived as a weakness of the current regime and President Ahmadinejad is not  interested in this at all. On the contrary, its task is to demonstrate its strength and firmness.

Q: Russia opposes pipelines via Caspian seabed citing environmental and other factors. Is it possible to implement projects of trans-Caspian pipelines in such circumstances?

A: Russia’s major goal in the region is to save a monopoly position in the field of energy supply. To achieve this Russia employs all sorts of mechanisms including political, economic and propaganda. However, it is clear that many of the Caspian littoral states would like to play an independent role in this respect and receive the very considerable profit from the transport of energy resources. Their desire fully coincides with the desire of many European countries to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on energy supplies from Russia. Against this background, the implementation of projects of trans-Caspian pipelines is feasible, albeit extremely difficult.

Q: The vast majority of the Caspian littoral states vehemently opposes emergence of extra-regional forces the in the region, primarily the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S. military is already engaged in Azerbaijan in training of national forces to combat all sorts of threats on the Caspian Sea. Can U.S. military forces be deployed on this sea?

A: I do not think in the present circumstances deployment of U.S. armed forces on the Caspian Sea is real. Indeed, almost all countries of the region against its militarization with the participation of third countries. However, NATO enlargement, possible aggravation of the situation in Afghanistan and complication of relations between the West and Iran may in the future will put the issue of the American military presence in the region in an entirely new way.

/Day.Az/