U.S. expert: G8 wants Karabakh conflict to be resolved taking into account Azerbaijan’s vital interests

Day.Az: At the recent summit, G8 leaders made a separate statements on Nagorno-Karabakh, in which called on the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia to resolve some remaining differences and conclude a peaceful settlement. How would you comment on the fact that G8 leaders draw world attention to the Karabakh problem?

Ariel Cohen: Statements on Karabakh show that it is high-profile conflict. G8 wants it to be resolved taken into consideration Azerbaijan’s vital interests. The question is that can G8 actually do it?

Q: Recently, representatives of the Azerbaijani and Armenian intellectuals made a joint visit to Baku, Yerevan and Nagorno-Karabakh. What role such initiatives have in the so-called public diplomacy to address the problem?

A: People's diplomacy has played an important, but to some extent, a minor role in resolving the conflict. It creates public support and atmosphere for the solution to the conflict, but a strategic decision is adopted by the top persons of the two countries.

Similar steps in the public diplomacy play a supporting role, that is, the role of support for the establishment of elite consensus. But, after all, it is a matter of the top people and leading teams to those who make the decision.

Q: Co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group said  during a recent visit to the region that it is possible to achieve significant progress in solving the Karabakh problem by the end of the year. Can the conflict be solved any time soon taking into account the current situation in and around the region?

A: The Karabakh conflict is one of the most difficult on the planet. I would personally like to see a solution. But neither side is prepared to set aside the fact that it sees as its vital interests: in case of Azerbaijan it is sovereignty and in the case of Armenia it is a claim to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. I think that in the interests of both parties to come to a settlement that would allow the Armenian population of Karabakh to live peacefully on this land while sovereignty will belong to Azerbaijan.

The question is whether the G8 leaders and the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia will reach a solution which will suit everyone. And what can G8 leaders offer to Armenia? For example, can they offer a more profound integration into the EU until the entry so that Yerevan will ease  position on independence? And how Moscow will accept it?

Q: Anniversary of the events around South Ossetia is nearing. What was the main lesson of these events for the region and the Karabakh settlement, in particular?

A: The use of force by Russia shows that a great power is able not only to use force, but also benefit from this outcome. Russia at that time sent a very strong message that countries of so-called “near abroad” including the South Caucasus and Ukraine, who seek to join NATO against Russia’s wishes, will be severely punished.  

Unfortunately, neither the Europeans nor the Americans have anything to do in order to somehow return the results of this conflict on the level of the status quo, that is, at the time before the events of 8 August last year. President Saakashvili's regime is under constant pressure by Moscow.

As for the impact on the Karabakh settlement, it seems to me that the intensification of contacts between Baku, Yerevan and Moscow, which we have seen in recent times, this is also the result of Kremlin’s show of force in Georgia. Much depends on Washington, Brussels and European capitals, which must be effectively involved in  into addressing security issues in the region. Not in detriment of Moscow, but for the sake of peace in the Caucasus. Without this, someone may think they have been given the green light for the construction of a zone of exclusive interests in the region.

/Day.az/