United States: relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey and the European Union

The possible cooling of relations between Washington and Ankara could have a negative influence in the Middle East - an area already under a certain strain due to the problematic relations with Syria and Iran and the difficult situation in Iraq.

New energy agreements with Azerbaijan and a cooling in USA-Turkey relations

The United States and Azerbaijan have signed an agreement of reciprocal collaboration in the energy sector. The agreement, developed by the Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and Elmar Mamedyarov, Azerbaijan's Minister of Foreign Affairs, focuses on collaboration in the context of energy security in the Caspian Sea region. As its principal objective the Memorandum of Understanding focuses on the enlargement of production and exportation, for and towards international markets, of Azerbaijan's oil and gas reserves and the construction of a gas pipeline that will cross Turkey and reach Greece and Italy. The pipeline will connect Europe's distribution network with Azerbaijan's thus guaranteeing Europe greater energy security and a diversification of natural gas and petrol sources, a factor significant to reducing Europe's energy dependancy on Russia.

In the same period that the MoU was being signed diplomatic relations with Ankara registered a moment of difficulty. This was due to the news that the House of Representatives were intent upon approving a motion that would condemn as genocide the massacre of Armenians in Turkey between 1915 and 1923. To date 15 countries, including Switzerland and France, have denounced the acts as genocide. The reply to Turkey's protests was entrusted to the Secretary of State and the Defense Secretary: Condoleeza Rice e Robert Gates in a joint statement to the head of the House of Representative's Foreign Commission, Thomas Lantos, declared that the resolution would ruin relations with the ally and requested that the motion not be voted upon. The Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, has already announced that the vote will take place by mid-April, however, should this happen then President Bush may well intervene in order to block any such action.

Speaking in front of the House Foreign Commission the under-Secretary of State, Daniel Fried, explained that the repercussions to US-Turkish relations would be extremely serious. The Turkish Government has already threatened to close the American air-base at Incirlik - one of the most important for troop and supply movements towards the Middle East - and deny overfly permission. The under-Secretary of State also let it be understood that Turkey could act against Kurds in the north of Iraqi in a moment in which the American presence is ever more important in the country.

Opinion polls in Turkey have shown that support for the United States is at the lowest level ever, Fried underlined the fact that twice in the past, in 1990 and 2000, the House did not vote on similar motions in order to preserve American diplomatic relations with Ankara. The turkish foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, during a visit to Washington in January stated that Turkey is reconsidering its past history but that all foreign condemnation would be counterproductive. For the Armenian communities around the world postponing or canceling the resolution would be a momentary defeat, representatives of the most important American communities have already declared that even if the motion is withdrawn it would be proposed again after the 2008 elections when, as expected, the White House will host a representative of the Democrats.

The new economic agreement between Europe and the United States

Relations between the United States and Europe are completely different: according to the official declarations of Robert Kimmit, the vice-Secretary of the Treasury, Washington and Brussels seem ready to up their economic integration to a higher level. This would be achieved by lowering normative obstacles in order to reach direct reciprocal investments and the integration of financial markets.

The United States have favorably received the initiative to improve the transatlantic market proposed by the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and representatives of the US treasury have declared that the United States and the European Union need to arrive at the economic summit of 30 April with a series of proposals. The objectives that the US and European negotiators have posed are clear: reduce as far as possible US and European norms and promote a harmonious convergence of the policies that still divide the two markets. The vice-Secretary of the Treasury underlined that the American priority in the global commercial arena was the success of the Doha Round, thus lowering the fears of many analysts that believed that a greater integration of the world's two major economic powers would favor a weakening of the current forces aimed at reducing global barriers. Both Kimmit and the principal US economic analysts agree that the forces necessary to furthering economic relations between the United States and Europe will be of equivalent success to the forces necessary to obtaining a single european market - one which has less barriers, better protects intellectual property and promotes greater competition in transport infrastructure and business services.

As regards the potential of the agreements Daniel Hamilton, Director of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at the Johns Hopkins University, underlined how commercial relations between the US and the EU differentiate from relations with other regions. The barriers to free-trade between the US and the EU are already quite low and the real question is removing legislative barriers to the flow of capital. Hamilton added that a strong 'transatlantic motor' could function to the advantage of the global economy; reaching a high level of success in relations with the principal economic partners, such as the EU, could bring the US to being a better client for goods coming from markets in which the US presence is not so strong.

According to Hamilton during the first half of the current decade Europe received more than 57% of American direct foreign investment while representing 75% of foreign capital invested in the United States. These investments could increase if both parties resolve the issue of the diverse corporate administration and fiscal duties - currently major investors lament the fact that the differences are the source of considerable costs and problems.

Conclusions

The new MoU between the US and Azerbaijan have brought about a greater closeness between Russia and China, not only politically but also in terms of economic and technology cooperation. Although there has been no substantial progress in the Siberian oil pipeline that would create a link between the two countries, commercial agreements for a value of 4 billion dollars have been agreed upon. Of particular importance is the agreement to collaborate in space programs, including the launch in 2009 of a Chinese satellite that will orbit Mars and a Moon space-shuttle that will be used to build an orbiting space station. The collaboration in question is of political significance above all, even if their interests are diverse both countries are intent on giving the impression of ever greater strength in order to counter balance the United States - an influence particularly strong in europe and one that will become ever stronger in the Caucasian region. Of crucial importance is the resolution of the diplomatic crisis between Washington and Ankara: the closure of the American base in Incirlik and the blockage of fly-over permission would create enormous obstacles to the US presence in Iraq.

By Simone Comi

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