United States has confirmed Baku's leading role in South Caucasus: Davos aftershocks

There has never been any doubt that Azerbaijan is the leader in the region. Some people wanted to see the situation in a different light, but this did not affect the real picture in any way. Azerbaijan has been and remains the leader of the South Caucasus. He dictated the agenda even during the years of the Armenian occupation, when he seemed to be in a weak position. It was just an appearance. But in fact, our country was the force that drove all the processes that took place in this part of the world. This is well known in the capitals of the world. And we always knew. And in Davos, the United States once again confirmed Baku's leading role and once again demonstrated Washington's recognition of this fact.

After Donald Trump's arrival in Davos, all the attention was shifted to him. What he's going to do, what he's going to say, who he's going to date. They watched his facial expressions and gestures. And it came as a bit of a shock to many that the American leader held only two bilateral meetings in Davos, with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Ukraine. If the meeting with Vladimir Zelensky was taken for granted in the context of Washington's current efforts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Trump's bilateral dialogue with President Ilham Aliyev caused some to be shocked. 

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Everything is mixed up with our Armenian neighbors. At first, the expert community and the opposition froze with a mute question on their lips: "Why?" And then it broke. Why did Donald Trump meet with the President of Azerbaijan, but did not receive the Prime Minister of Armenia, although he is inclined to respect parity? And I didn't just meet with President Ilham Aliyev, but also discussed TRIPP with him! What should Armenia expect now? And the like.

The American scholar Suren Sargsyan pointed out in his Facebook post that "it is still unclear to him why Trump did not have a one-on-one meeting with the Prime Minister of Armenia, while such a meeting took place with the President of Azerbaijan. Usually, the United States always tries to maintain parity. Moreover, Trump and Aliev discussed the TRIPP initiative."

The Armenian Americanist apparently does not allow the idea that Washington and Baku may have their own affairs unrelated to the affairs of the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan is a country of average strength, and its relations with the powerful are at a qualitatively different level. The Azerbaijani leader is a world-class leader, an authoritative politician who is able to influence the situation in his region and in a wider space. Azerbaijan is the undisputed leader of the South Caucasus, it has always shaped the agenda here, and even more so, everything is tied to its interests now, after a grandiose military victory. Everyone probably remembers Donald Trump's reaction to the 2020 war. More precisely, in her absence. The Diaspora and the lobby tore their vests, and the US President was in no hurry to condemn Baku. He was just watching, and probably already then outlined who in the region could become a real partner of the United States. The United States and Azerbaijan have a broad bilateral agenda. The Charter on Strategic Partnership between the two countries is currently being discussed, it is a very serious document that will be signed by Baku and Washington for the first time. The bilateral agenda is broad. For the first time, the United States has interests in the South Caucasus, and they can only be realized through partnership with Baku.

And yet, Armenia does not want to make it clear that TRIPP is the same as the Zangezur corridor, it is a road to which Azerbaijan has the most direct relationship, and therefore it has the right to discuss the project with whomever it deems necessary.

All these are such simple truths that the misunderstanding is simply amazing. And sometimes it makes you laugh. The Armenian opposition knows how to make fun.

Eduard Sharmazanov, a member of the executive body of the Republican Party of Armenia, burst into tears on social networks, saying that, but under Serzh Sargsyan, the world powers considered Armenia. And in general, Armenia, under the leadership of Serjik, dictated the agenda in the region.

This should be understood as follows: if it were not Nikol Pashinyan but Serzh Sargsyan who was in Davos, then Trump would have met with Serge, not with Ilham Aliyev.

Sharmazanov seems to have overslept everything. Azerbaijan has always dictated the agenda in the region. Armenia and its leaders, both past and present, are particularly well aware of this. Armenia has never been in control of the situation. It has never had the sovereignty necessary to shape the regional agenda. Being a country under external control, it is impossible to dictate the rules. And it is especially difficult when such a grave crime as the occupation of a neighbor's territories is hanging around your neck. Although no one openly condemned Armenia, everyone knew that it was a criminal and that its leaders had blood on their hands.

How can you not laugh when you hear that the world powers considered Serzh Sargsyan?

Neither Kocharyan nor Sargsyan were handshaking politicians. They were, one might even say, disdained. They were perceived on international platforms as a piece of furniture or guests whose presence had to be tolerated. Not because someone really disliked the extremely unsympathetic face of the same Sargsyan, but because the bloody trail trailing behind the Karabakh clan was too noticeable. Kissing Sargsyan could have damaged his reputation. Having seized power in Armenia, Kocharyan and Sargsyan did not cease to be war criminals, and they tried to keep them at a distance and shook hands with them only when required by diplomatic protocol. Neither the rich diaspora, nor powerful guardians, nor an influential lobby saved the situation. Even Nikol Pashinyan, who does not have such a dirty background as Sargsyan, remained invisible to world politics and diplomacy until the end of the conflict. It is no coincidence that the Armenian Prime Minister is talking today about the real Armenia, about the Armenia that will become visible.

If Kocharyan tried to stay in Armenia more and not show himself to anyone, Serzh Sargsyan was very fond of making foreign visits, including to places where they were not expected and where they were not invited. That's why he had to rub his nose in the mud more often than Kocharyan. There have been quite unpleasant and humiliating situations in the history of the Sargsyan presidency.

In 2014, Sargsyan went on a visit to Argentina, a country with a large Armenian diaspora and a well-fed lobby. It would seem that everything should have been captured there. But the unexpected happened - the Argentine colleague did not accept him, citing his health condition. Have you imagined the situation? The president of a country comes on an official visit, but the head of that state refuses to meet with him. This characterizes the guest in a certain way, not the receiving party. In this case, it showed the level of international authority of the Armenian President.

In 2016, Serzh Sargsyan went to the nuclear security summit in the United States three days earlier to seek a meeting with Barack Obama. The White House has marinated Sargsyan in vain hopes, but Obama has not accepted him. The then Vice President Joe Biden was sent to the President of Armenia as a lollipop. Thus, Sargsyan had to spend three days, for which big plans were being made, contemplating only "native" faces, that is, at meetings with the diaspora and the lobby.

Serge had to go through similar troubles many times. The world powers "considered" Armenia and its leadership to the highest standards not only overseas. The Armenian media previously wrote about similar problems experienced by Sargsyan during his visit to Spain in October 2015, and later in Italy.

Nikol Pashinyan found himself in the same awkward situations. But the current leader of Armenia, unlike Sargsyan and his team, does not talk about Armenia's ephemeral international image, about the fact that the world powers almost consulted with Yerevan before making a decision, and about other nonsense. Pashinyan wants to build a completely different Armenia. And he will build it if the various Sargsians, Sharmazanovs, Manukyans and others do not get in the way.

Eduard Sharmazanov does not understand that propaganda can have the opposite effect. In the case of Sargsyan and Co., this is exactly the case. Eddie wanted the best, but it turned out the same as always. He himself recalled the shameful failures of his boss, although he probably expected fireworks and applause.

Everything is happening the way it should be. The recognition of Azerbaijan's leading role in the South Caucasus by the United States is not an action designed simply to annoy Yerevan or anyone else. This is a natural reaction of a world power to the real balance of power in Eurasia and the South Caucasus in particular. 

In Davos, it finally became clear who was dictating the agenda in the region. And who the powers see as his leader.