Stratfort: "Azerbaijan: Balancing Tehran and Washington"

Aliyev met U.S. President George W. Bush on April 28 during a trip to Washington, during which he proclaimed that Azerbaijan will not be used in any possible U.S. attacks on Iran. Aliyev's presidential meetings come at a time when Azerbaijan is coming into international focus because of its energy resources and geostrategic location. And both Tehran and Washington are looking for cooperation and guarantees from Baku, leaving Aliyev in a unique bargaining position.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Baku, Azerbaijan, on May 4 on the sidelines of a summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO). Aliyev also recently paid a visit to the United States, where he met U.S. President George W. Bush on April 28.

The short time span between Aliyev's presidential meetings highlights the role Baku is playing in the escalating conflict between Iran and the United States. Although the visits' timing may be mere coincidence, Azerbaijan is nevertheless playing an important part in U.S.-Iranian relations, both due to its geostrategic position and its emerging role as an energy hub.

The United States wants a military presence in the Caspian nation, and rumors have indicated Washington might even use Azerbaijan as a base for possible incursions into Iran. Aliyev has contradicted these rumors many times, however. For example, in a speech before the Council on Foreign Relations during his recent visit to Washington, he said that "Azerbaijan, of course, will not be engaged in any kind of potential (U.S.) operations against Iran." Permission to use Azerbaijani airspace and as a supply base would not, of course, actually involve Baku's explicit participation in any attacks.

While Baku would not mind the additional aid that would flow from Washington in return for its cooperation in an attack on Iran, Aliyev knows that allowing a U.S. attack against Iran from Azerbaijani soil probably will result in Iranian retaliation against Azerbaijan, which would be very bad for his country's oil and natural gas business.

The United States has other, more likely locations to base an assault on Iran, so using Azerbaijan for this purpose is not a primary consideration.

Azerbaijan's historical tensions with Iran also play a role in Baku's calculations. The Azeri minority in Iran far outnumbers the Azeri population of Azerbaijan. Tehran is looking to prevent any secessionist tendencies, especially if they could be supported by its neighbor. And the two countries have recently been trying to maintain better relations. Following up Aliyev's visit to the White House, Ahmadinejad will use his meeting with the Azerbaijani leader to ensure Tehran does not need to worry about U.S.-Azerbaijani cooperation against Iran.

Azerbaijani ties with the United States have come a long way since the fall of the Soviet Union. As the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is about to come online, Azerbaijan will become the energy hub of the Caspian Sea, a source to which European countries as well as the United States are looking as an alternative to the volatile Russia. And the United States is very interested in having a Muslim democracy adjoining the Middle East, while Aliyev wants U.S. support -- or at least noninterference -- on the issue of the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh.

Aliyev has now gained enough confidence to resist being used as a pawn by Washington against Iran, thereby destabilizing Baku's relationship with Tehran. Azerbaijan is ascending as a regional leader, and Aliyev is consolidating his power. This includes making overtures toward Nagorno Karabakh, controlled at present by ethnic Armenians. Under the slogan of territorial integrity, Aliyev will likely use the profits from pipeline operations to get the region back under Baku's control. His value to the United States as an ally and an energy supplier collides with the influence of Armenians, of whom there are more in the United States than in the old country. Armenia is also supported by Russia, potentially placing the situation in a Cold War context if Russian support for Armenia were to pit it against the United States. For while Washington will do everything possible to remain neutral if and when the Nagorno Karabakh conflict reignites, it has been making overtures toward the Azerbaijani regime, where it sees its greater interests lying.

Despite these U.S. overtures, it is clearly in Aliyev's interest to recuse himself from participating in any U.S. operation against Iran and to maintain at least Azerbaijan's present level of relations with his southern neighbor. Aliyev also wants Washington to acknowledge the legitimacy of his leadership to help him further consolidate his power. In the November 2005 parliamentary elections, Washington supported the Azerbaijani opposition, but since then has accepted that U.S. interests lie with Aliyev, who controls Azerbaijan's lucrative energy sector.

Aliyev likes the spotlight, and hopes that it will increase his leeway in running the country as he sees fit. So far, he has managed to balance his relationships with Iran and the United States nicely.

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