U.S. analysts hail diplomacy moving Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process forward

By Azernews

By Sabina Mammadli

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's diplomacy is assisting in moving the peace process with Armenia in the right direction., U.S. analyst Irina Tsukerman has said.

The analyst made the remarks in an interview with the local media, commenting on the recent trilateral meeting in Brussels on April 6.

She noted that it is remarkable that, despite recent propaganda and provocations, Yerevan is cooperating and has agreed to reciprocate the step in proposing the peace agreement.

“The rest, of course, depends on the good faith of [Armenian Prime Minister Nikol] Pashinyan. Armenia’s population is tired of costly skirmishes, and bloody wars. Part of the success here lies in Baku's consistent firm position on its own principles,” she added.

Steps forward peace treaty

Tsukerman went on to say that the outcome of the Brussels talks provides a reason for cautious optimism.

She noted that the road to a peace treaty is long, but both parties have made it clear that steps are being taken toward that end.

Tsukerman believes that the fact that the foreign ministries of Azerbaijan and Armenia will be involved in the development of the terms of a peace treaty means that, despite the pressure from some third parties, Yerevan is finally serious.

Later, she stated that what happens next is determined by how quickly the next steps toward normalization are taken.

In her opinion, the main obstacle to resolving border demarcation and delimitation issues is the pressure from Armenian lobbyists in the West, the Karabakh clan, and revanchists who are tied to mythology and think about the past rather than the future.

“Pashinyan should address the people with a speech describing the optimistic prospects for peaceful coexistence in the region and begin the hard work of distancing himself from the so-called allies who think only of their own benefit,” said Tsukerman.

Former US ambassador to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza said the agreement reached by Azerbaijan and Armenia is a very positive sign.

"I believe these are the steps that both leaders have long desired to take but have been thwarted by Pashinyan's political opposition in Armenia," Bryza said.

He also drew attention to the protests in Yerevan against Armenia's positive steps by people who still believe that Armenia can reclaim the territories it illegally took from Azerbaijan and build "A Greater Armenia" along the lines of the medieval state, which would also include territory from Turkey, but those reigns are over.

"It is now time for Azerbaijan and Armenia to reach a peace agreement. The formation of a joint border commission and the demarcation of the international border between Azerbaijan and Armenia will also save lives. This is a critical potential step toward peace. Let's hope work starts [soon]," the former ambassador added.

EU role in relations normalization

Tsukerman pointed out that ultimately, Azerbaijan's security and prosperity benefit the entire region, helping integrate faster and stimulating economic and cultural opportunities. According to her, this will also make it a more effective partner for the EU on a number of critical issues, such as energy.

The analyst stressed that in contrast to the OSCE Minsk Group, the EU had played a very active and constructive role in the peace process.

"The focus on confidence-building measures, in particular, is pragmatic and mutually acceptable. Humanitarian demining efforts should elicit no official opposition from Armenia; in fact, it may provide them with a tactful diplomatic opportunity to make amends with their neighbor," she said.

Noting that European Union is much more actively involved in this process than, say, the Minsk Group, she stressed that Charles Michel pushed both sides to demonstrate goodwill through concrete actions, and also insisted on a clear plan for further meetings.

She emphasized that EU Council President Charles Michel pushed both sides to demonstrate goodwill through specific actions and insisted on a clear plan for future meetings.

“However, the rest depends only on the sides themselves. Baku has so far fulfilled its obligations, but since Sochi, Armenia has constantly shied away from fulfilling what its prime minister signed after the 44-day war. Perhaps with more active EU mediation, and also given the current situation with Russia, it is in Yerevan's best interests to cooperate, reach an agreement and enlist the support of neighbors. It sounds a bit rude, but, as they say, we will all stand together or we will hang alone," the analyst noted.

 Bryza also pointed out the EU's important role in fostering stability in the South Caucasus.

"I have believed for many years, dating back to my time as the U.S. co-chair of the Minsk Group, that the EU should play a role in the mediation of the Karabakh conflict. It didn't make sense to me that France was the co-chair of the Minsk Group rather than the entire EU. Yes, France is a significant country, but the EU as a whole is a superpower, and France is not," Bryza explained.

In his opinion, the EU is now demonstrating the important role it can play in laying the foundation for long-term stability and peace. He added that Charles Michel has expressed a strong interest in promoting stability in the South Caucasus.

"The EU can help with confidence-building measures, humanitarian demining, and possibly by underwriting investments in transportation links. But the main thing that the EU is doing is arranging for the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders to meet to discuss the important issues of a peace agreement and the demarcation of Azerbaijan and Armenia's international borders," he concluded.